Blind Battles: Hand #2

[cartman]

This is a similar situation to your other post except the pot is a little bigger. Still, if you call the flop and check to him on the turn, the pot will have 4BB in it. If he bets with a 6 outer there you should be very happy about it. Even if he plays the river absolutely perfectly and you always pay him off he is only getting 6 to 1 on his turn bet which is not enough. If he will sometimes fire a third barrel with a worse hand, that is even better. If you show any aggression at any point you will only make him fold hands that you would rather him have kept betting with while opening yourself up to punishment of some sort from him in the form of him often forcing you to either make an expensive call down or to fold the best hand.

Sometimes you will eke out some extra value when he just calls down with a worse hand, but taking the lead with this hand is not my idea of a good time. Of course and as always I may be dead wrong. What do you guys think?

Thanks,
Cartman

[MAxx]

I'd cr the flop here... and lead the turned J.

If he raised the turn, the default for me is to want to fold. However based on the fact that he will raise the turn with A or K high or possible other non paired stuff... Your hand is obviously good some of the time. In the context of being in this spot often, and yes Metagame, it seems you should change your strategy, IMO. Folding all the time doesn't seem correct, and calling down all the time doesnt seem correct either. What about some strategy that lies inbetweeen. Could a randomized calling down frequency be correct? I'm just putting something out there, it could be full of holes but let's think about it for kicks.

For simplistic aruguments sake say your hand is ahead here 27% time on the turn... and he has 6 outs on the turn when you are ahead and you have 5 outs when behind... so he may suck out on you around 13% of the time when you are ahead and you may suck out on him around 10% of the time when you are actually behind. Would it then be reasonable to think you would win the hand somewhere around 24% of the time? Maybe lower that to 20% of the time for conservatism. What if you then decided to call down this sequencene at random 20% of time?

So the (perhaps very stupid) question here is: if you were to be guaranteed to win the hand 20% of the time here long term, would you breakeven here if you randomly called down here 20% of the time? And if so, would this benefit you from a metagame perspective?

Perhaps the fact that you are out of position makes this unrealistic, even if it were true because he would have the option to bet the river much more often when he was ahead and check behind much more often on the river when behind. Maybe this should just be an adjustment for your frequency. Anyway, could the answer be: to randomly call down some % of the time?