$215 Custer hand #3 (75/150) - missed SB push?

[tigerite]

PartyPoker - NL Texas Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Tournament | Level: 5 - 4 players (Converter: PGC)


Chip Counts:
UTG: 1540 Chips
Button: 3215 Chips
CO: 2960 Chips
<font color="red">Hero: 1165 Chips</font>
BB: 1120 Chips


Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Blinds are 75/150

PreFlop
posts BB, <font color="blue">BB folds</font>, <font color="blue">UTG folds</font>, <font color="blue">Button folds</font>
<font color="blue">Hero folds</font>

Final Pot:225 Chips


I think I'm pushing this against 90% of opponents, and the guy in the BB didn't seem to be a total donk, nor very keen to defend his blind.

Also Custer hadn't been stealing at all up til then. Seems an absolutely perfect opportunity to shove to me.

[pooh74]

I had written out a whole reply saying you were crazy because when I read the stack orders I put Hero in the CO at first. Hero is SB, I think this is a good push, especially given the context that he hadnt been pushing yet.

[tigerite]

Yeah sorry PGC messed it up first time. It actually put "no seat" as that stack. Very strange, but fixed up now.

[Newt_Buggs]

Many of the $215 regulars are capable of correctly lowering their calling standards to call with junk hands that are still +EV for them, but -EV for you. This is a marginal situation that is usually a push but not always. It could be that BB is just a maniacal donk though which could also make this a correct fold.

[ilya]

This seems like a marginal spot....

pushing is exploitable by an aware opponent
getting called &amp; winning would not put Hero in a dominating stack position
giving up the SB doesn't push Hero's stack below an EV threshhold.
later on, Hero will have more FE than his stack would suggest against the slightly-bigger BB, cos the BB will feel less pressure on the one hand, and will worry about being crippled if he calls on the other hand.

[tigerite]

It's barely exploitable; the BB has to call with &gt; 27% range here. Considering how tight Custer had played up til now, with no steals even when folded to him on the CO/Button at 25/50 (with reasonable hands I might add), I just can't see how BB will call with the likes of J8s and similar crapola.

[Shillx]

A calling range can never be +EV for him and -EV for you. Or at least it should be your goal to make sure that this never happens. That said, a calling range can be -EV for both parties. The NE here is quite liberal though I don't know the exact figures. It looks like a ~65/35 spot which would put 76o right on the fence. But if the BB isn't calling frequently we have a very easy push here. He has to call a lot (&gt; ~35%) to lessen our standards.

[curtains]

I thought they have to call with like 32%+ Of course if someone is going to push hands as weak as 76o, then its correct to make such calls.

[Custer]

Thanks for posting this. After looking at this again and running some numbers on SNGPT, this does look like an obvious push. I haven't been happy with my numbers from the 25-50 trhough 75-150 blind levels, and after lots of thinking decided to tighten up at these levels, figuring that many of the current players got too impatient during this part of the tournament. For example there have been many times over the last couple of weeks that I've raised to 300 at 50-100 level and been pushed by stacks of 600-800 (where there is no way they can assume I might fold) with hands such as A6, 44, KQ, etc. It seems I have taken this tightening up too far with this hand. Thanks for pointing that out.

moses