Baby flush with 200 BB stacks.

[pzhon]

I'm worried that I might have misplayed the river of this hand.

Online NL, 10-handed. <font color="white">843769651</font>

Hero (Button) has 392 BB.
MP1 has 269 BB. No reads.
Villain (MP2, PFR) has 199 BB. Villain was also playing at another table with the hero (and winning at both tables). From the response time at the other table, it appeared that he was paying attention to the current hand. Earlier, at the other table, he had twice made 1/2-2/3 pot continuation bets, then folded quickly to flop check-raises by the hero. He may feel I have been pushing him around.

The blinds were short-stacked, with 20-45 BB. All other players had 20-95 BB.

Hero is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Preflop:
One fold. UTG+1 limps. MP1 limps. Villain raises to 4 BB. Three folds. Hero calls 4 BB. The blinds fold. UTG+1 calls 3 BB. MP1 calls 3 BB.

Flop (4 players, 17.5 BB): 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Two checks. Villain bets 5 BB. Hero calls. UTG+1 folds. MP1 calls.

Turn (3 players, 32.5 BB): Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Three checks.

River (3 players, 32.5 BB): J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
MP1 checks. Villain bets 4 BB. Hero...?

I'm almost 100% sure the Villain has something, but it could be anything from second pair to the nut flush. I have no idea what MP1 has. I'd like to win the most if I am ahead, and lose the least if I am behind. What is the right line on the river?

[Spladle Master]

Raise to 10 BBs. If he re-raises you're probably behind but should still call anything reasonable. Say anything less than 30 more BBs.

[Bukem_]

You aren't getting enough value by raising to only 10bbs to make up for the times he re-raises. Then you are left with a difficult decision due to your small raise.

I'd go to about 2/3 the pot.

[FreakDaddy]

Considering everything you've said, I may take the conservative route here and flat call on the river. Why? 1) It's a pretty small bet begging for a call from a player who may have a made hand and is worried about getting nothing else from it since everyone checked the turn. 2) Your image may push villian towards comming over the top against any raise if he feels he's been pushed around. I always ask myself if I'm raising on the river, 'will I call a push here?' If the answer is no, then I don't re-raise. I've found this to be immensly helpful on my bankroll. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Spladle Master]

The problem as I see it is that he will never call a big raise with a hand that you beat. He will either fold, call with a bigger flush, or re-raise with the nuts.

[fimbulwinter]

easy raise to 40BB

fim

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
easy raise to 40BB

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

wow that seems like a lot. more than the pot after that 3rd spade comes, i dont think youre getting paid off here very often. i think 20-22 works.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
easy raise to 40BB


[/ QUOTE ]

wow that seems like a lot. more than the pot after that 3rd spade comes

[/ QUOTE ]
After calling the 4 BB, the pot would have 40.5 BB in it, so raising to 44 BB would be a pot-sized raise, giving the villain 2:1 odds to call. MP1 would be getting slightly worse odds, 20:11.

Many people don't seem to know how large a pot-sized raise is. When you make a real pot-sized raise, rather than raising to the size of the pot before they bet, they say, "OMG! Nice buy, fish." If they don't realize what pot-odds they are getting, it is easy to steal from them, since you can cheaply represent a monster to them.

That said, if the villain will fold any worse hand to a pot-sized raise, it would probably be wrong to raise that much. It is part of the problem to figure out if that is the case.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
easy raise to 40BB

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

wow that seems like a lot. more than the pot after that 3rd spade comes, i dont think youre getting paid off here very often. i think 20-22 works.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love this raise. Does anyone not think his hand reeks of AK? Maybe a set of jacks or something like that. The nut flush is a definite possibility, but I don't think a big enough one to just call off. This is because I feel like for a 1/2 pot raise, the nut straight or a set convinces himself to call. It's also a scary enough raise that he can really only come over it with the nuts unless you have a read otherwise.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

Hero is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Preflop:
One fold. UTG+1 limps. MP1 limps. Villain raises to 4 BB. Three folds. Hero calls 4 BB. The blinds fold. UTG+1 calls 3 BB. MP1 calls 3 BB.

Flop (4 players, 17.5 BB): 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Two checks. Villain bets 5 BB. Hero calls. UTG+1 folds. MP1 calls.

Turn (3 players, 32.5 BB): Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Three checks.

River (3 players, 32.5 BB): J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
MP1 checks. Villain bets 4 BB. Hero...?


[/ QUOTE ]
Hero raises to 26 BB. MP1 folds. Villain calls 22 BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], a straight, and Hero's flush wins the 84.5 BB pot, minus rake.

In retrospect, I think my raise was much too small, and cost the expected profit from many hands. I think it was likely that Villain had a set or a straight and would pay off a raise to 40 BB or more. There aren't many one-pair hands on the river that would have played so weakly on the flop and turn, and maybe he is frustrated enough to call a larger raise with one of those.

I think Villain misplayed on the river. The stacks are deep, and Villain has the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] which blocks the nuts. It's not common for it to be right to bluff with a strong made hand, but I think it is right here. Villain should have made a big reraise, and I might have folded. Even if you assume (incorrectly, from the results) that I'll be bluffed out or beat whenever Villain has the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I believe it is right to raise a larger amount than 22 BB, as it just isn't so likely that he has the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

I believe Villain recognized the mistake of not reraising with the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], as he later semi-bluffed off his 175 BB stack at the other table with TPTK+nut flush draw against my set when the turn brought a third flush card. I had an easy call only because I had a big draw to a full house; I might have folded two pair or a baby flush.