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Old 12-22-2005, 02:26 PM
sam h sam h is offline
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Default \"Democratization\" = Islamization

This article in the Asia Times is one of the better commentaries I have seen on recent events in the middle east.

The key part:

"No less important for Tehran were the local Palestinian elections last week in West Bank cities. According to the preliminary results, the Islamic militant group Hamas won resounding victories. Coming as it does barely six weeks ahead of crucial parliamentary elections (scheduled for January 25), this development significantly impacts on the Palestinian problem and also alters the scope and dimensions of Middle East politics as a whole.

Hamas remains committed to the destruction of Israel, and is considered a terrorist group by Israel, the US and the European Union. The implications for the tepid peace process with Israel are bound to be serious. An existential dilemma forthwith arises for the "international community": can it any longer remain myopic and exclude Hamas from the the Middle East's political landscape?

But, more importantly, along with the significant showing by the Muslim Brotherhood in last month's elections in Egypt and the incremental "Islamization" of Iraq that is unmistakably under way (and that will get a fillip from the Iraqi elections), Hamas' emergence at the forefront of Palestinian politics signifies a huge eruption of popular disenchantment with the prevailing governance systems. Simply put, Islamism has placed itself in the vanguard of the Middle East's democratization - like "liberation theology" did at one time in Latin America."


The Bush administration is right that the Middle East is full of people yearning to be free of the yoke of petty tyrants. But they are dead wrong to believe that majorities ultimately want secular liberal governments instead. The whole neo-con security vision for the 21st century was based on the fanciful idea that liberal democracies wouldn't produce terrorists. What about radical Islamist "democracies?"
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Old 12-22-2005, 04:29 PM
andyfox andyfox is offline
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Default Re: \"Democratization\" = Islamization

"they are dead wrong to believe that majorities ultimately want secular liberal governments"

It is usually wrong to assume that the other guy, given the opportunity, would be just like us. But I heard Secretary Rumsfeld yesterday say that victory in Iraq would mean a moderate Islamic government. By "moderate," I assume he mans liberal, i.e., favorably disposed to United States interests, but the "Islamic" shows that the administratioin doesn't necessarily assume that the democratically elected governments will be secular.
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Old 12-22-2005, 05:21 PM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Default Re: \"Democratization\" = Islamization

Given how much our country has shifted away from classical liberalism / libertarianism after the events of 9/11, it seems highly unlikely that Iraq -- given the chaos they face and lack of order there -- will turn to liberal or moderate answers.

The insurgents may not win support among the Iraqi citizens, but the people to whom Iraqis turn will likely be people the insurgents like more than we moderate Americans do.

So I think your analysis is, sadly, likely to be spot on.

Basically, Iraq seems to be playing out very similar to other attempts to liberalize parts of the world (e.g. Central America). Nominal democracy takes hold for a while, but the roots of secular liberalism never become rooted in the society.

Given that much of the Republican success in the U.S. has been based on the erosion of support for secular liberalism, it is somewhat ironic that they are so optomistic about its success in Iraq.
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Old 12-22-2005, 06:32 PM
Rockatansky Rockatansky is offline
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Default Re: \"Democratization\" = Islamization

What's the problem? All the Iraqis want is a theocracy, just like a majority of Americans.
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