Soul Searching

[QTip]

Some of my stats over my last 60k (which have been my worst stretch ever) are pretty horrible. So, I'm starting some soul searching. This fold ok?

MP is uknown, EP is semi-loose.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (9.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero folds

I'd say it's a good fold.

[mack848]

[ QUOTE ]
Some of my stats over my last 60k (which have been my worst stretch ever) are pretty horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to go into this further? I imagine, given the quality of your posts, that your poor run has resulted in a reduced win rate, rather than a loss?

[Entity]

It's a good fold. I raise this preflop.

Good fold.

Entity, why the raise preflop from the SB? Do we really have the best hand? Disguise? Can you elaborate?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Good fold.

Entity, why the raise preflop from the SB? Do we really have the best hand? Disguise? Can you elaborate?

[/ QUOTE ]

We have a good hand and a fair amount of equity, and due to the relatively small % of hands people raise from the SB, we tend to get a lot more credit for a big hand (and consequently pick up more pots with a flop bet than we would otherwise). But basically when we've got a loose limper and someone else who doesn't like his hand (or doesn't understand poker well enough) to isolate that limper, I think we've got plenty of equity and don't mind playing a big pot at all.

Rob

[SnglMaltScotch]

Does anyone else 3bet the turn. You have top pair and an OESFD.

Thats:
9 outs to a flush
8 outs to a straight
2 outs to trips
3 outs to an iffy 2 pair (1 actual out)

Plus if you 3 bet the UTG+1 might lay down whatever random crap he holds.

Thought/Comments/Laughing/Ridicule

[krimson]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else 3bet the turn. You have top pair and an OESFD.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would consider this if we had position in the hand and could check behind on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else 3bet the turn. You have top pair and an OESFD.

Thats:
9 outs to a flush
8 outs to a straight
2 outs to trips
3 outs to an iffy 2 pair (1 actual out)

Plus if you 3 bet the UTG+1 might lay down whatever random crap he holds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think we should be worried about UTG+1. He is certainly a weak player who does not know how to play poker or does not like his hand.

With that being said, the person to keep attention to is MP2, whom I'm pretty sure has KQ right now. You do have an OESFD, but you're drawing against the nuts on the turn. You 3-bet and he will cap. If you make a straight, you either lose with the low-end or you chop with a K. Two pair is no good. Set is no good. Assuming your two opponents hold no diamonds, your best case is nine outs. You will only make this flush 20% of the time with all nine outs.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else 3bet the turn. You have top pair and an OESFD.

Thats:
9 outs to a flush
8 outs to a straight
2 outs to trips
3 outs to an iffy 2 pair (1 actual out)

Plus if you 3 bet the UTG+1 might lay down whatever random crap he holds.

Thought/Comments/Laughing/Ridicule

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're 3-betting the turn it's because you want UTG+1 to call. The problem with your outs analysis is that you're mostly relying on your flush outs -- trip outs aren't good against a straight or 2pr, 2pr outs are only good against a worse 2pr...

So if you weight his range of hands for this turn raise and say it's something like:

KQ 15%
JT 30%
99/44 15%
87 20%
Q8 20%

In that event, you'd have about 30% equity and would still be losing bets on a 3-bet, especially if UTG+1 folded. In addition, you'd miss out on a profitable river checkraise when you hit your flush if MP has two pair, and you'd get capped by a better hand pretty frequently. You're putting yourself in a nasty spot for RIO by 3-betting the turn here, even though your hand looks pretty, especially when you're inclined to bet a lot of your "outs" on the river when you hit them, even if they aren't good.

Rob