In doubts on the turn with JJ

#1 11-25-2005, 12:10 PM

Party Poker Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.00 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG folds, Hero ...

I folded the hand. I think I'm behind and I'm either drawing dead or I have two outs.

What would be your action and why?

krimson · #2 11-25-2005, 01:12 PM

Overcard and a completed draw. I think folding here is okay. Our effective odds to call down are fairly slim at 7.5:2 (we need to be ahead, and stay ahead more than ~27% of the time).

A read would help this hand. If he's unknown, the limit it was played at would help.

#3 11-25-2005, 01:35 PM

I think folding here is wrong. He could easily be doing this with a pair and a diamond.

Bob T. · #4 11-25-2005, 01:42 PM

Well, I read your post, only because of your name. You a Maui Boy?

Anyway, of the possible turn cards out there, you got one ugly one. I wish I had a read on the bettor here. Some players I would fold against. Some I would raise/fold against. Some I would call down. I dpn't think folding is wrong here.

But a lot of players if they held a flush draw, might have bet out here on the flop. If they actually had a flush, wouldn't they make more money against you by checkraising? Maybe they called with just overcards, so they might have AK, KQ, QJ, or KJ. If they did, if they have one of the hands without a queen in it, they just developed a straight draw, with some other outs, especially if they have a diamond and might be taking a shot at the pot. Or they could just be the kind of player that frequently bets scare cards. Additionally they might be betting any random hand with one big diamond.

Like I said, depending on the player, there are a lot of possibilities, and a read would be nice. I think at 2-4, I would lean toward a fold, and higher, I might lean toward calling down.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

krimson · #5 11-25-2005, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think folding here is wrong. He could easily be doing this with a pair and a diamond.

[/ QUOTE ]
What pair do you think would not raise this flop to protect his hand?

I'm thinking it's a Q unsure where he stands against the diamond 3-flush.

Bob T. · #6 11-25-2005, 01:46 PM

What pair do you think would not raise this flop to protect his hand?

2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. We don't have reads. Maybe he just can't fold an ace in the SB, and can't fold for one bet, anytime he makes one pair. Then he develops the diamond draw on the turn, and takes a shot at the pot.

#7 11-25-2005, 01:53 PM

I think assuming you opponent is going to raise the flop with any pair is incorrect. Many opponents would even play a 10 like this, figuring you for overs and looking to get two bets in on the turn. He could have a 5 with a big diamond or other such holdings.

A flush draw probably gives more action on the flop and I am not worried about an overcard coming on the turn. While your opponent may have caught it since overcard draws hit so rarely I don't mind paying them off when they do hit.

Your opponents do not always

bobhalford · #8 11-25-2005, 02:12 PM

Seems like this one is read-dependant. In this case, the sb probably has a Q and bets it because he's afraid of it getting checked through and doesn't want the K or A of diamonds to get a free look at the river. Seems like a good fold. The other play is to call the turn and see what SB does on the river if the straight and flush draws don't appear. He could have something like KJ with a diamond or J9, but both of those are less likely considering you have two jacks.

krimson · #9 11-25-2005, 02:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What pair do you think would not raise this flop to protect his hand?

2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. We don't have reads. Maybe he just can't fold an ace in the SB, and can't fold for one bet, anytime he makes one pair. Then he develops the diamond draw on the turn, and takes a shot at the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
True, but I think this just falls into the bluff/semi-bluff category, and not a situation where he is betting thinking he may be ahead.

Again, this question is too difficult to answer without reads or the limit it was played it.