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#1
11-22-2005, 05:18 AM
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Sketchy
Canterbury 15/30 9 handed
I have only been at the table for an orbit or 2. Villain here I have played with a few times. He does nothing fancy that I can recall. I have no idea what he thinks of me. UTG limps, I raise next in with KQo, 1 fold, villain 3 bets, someone else (I think BB) calls, UTG calls 2 cold, I call. Flop 4 ways (12SB): 79Tr, checks to villain who bets, BB folds, UTG calls, I call. Turn 3 ways (7.5BB): 7 completeing rainbow checks, to villain who bets, UTG folds, I call. River (9.5BB): J I check, villain bets, I raise, villain 3-bets, I fold. thoughts? 
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#2
11-22-2005, 05:33 AM
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Re: Sketchy
I'd fold this flop.
You've got an unimaginative live player that 3-bet you pre-flop. I assume that he is typical in that this means AA-QQ, AK, AQs and maybe JJ. If so, the only reason to continue in the hand is to make a move somewhere. Otherwise, you are most likely drawing to 0-3 outs. Will he really fire the river with AK/Q UI? You might be able to get him to lay that down, but you could have probably done that on the turn for cheaper. If he has a PP, will he lay it down to the river raise? Most live players that I've seen won't do this unless they think you have a flush or a straight, and even then they tend to call.
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#4
11-22-2005, 05:40 AM
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Re: Sketchy
Getting 14:1, peeling the flop with a gutshot and overcards and closing the action is fine. Granted, the K/Q outs are negligble given the read on the 3-bettor, but they have some value.
On the river, I puke, but I don't think I can fold to the 3-bet. I suspect folding is correct, and a better player than me could/does make it, but on a J-high board, I'll take 15.5:1 odds that he's overplaying AA/KK.
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#5
11-22-2005, 05:49 AM
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Re: Sketchy
Lets talk about the turn call before the river. AA-QQ means we can't call profitably. JJ means we 6 outs. AK means 7 outs. Villain is probably more likely to be betting here with AA-JJ. It seems we can call profitably. But many of our outs can also get us into trouble just like in this example. I suppose if you can get as much value in when you're ahead and lose the least when you're behind then you can call the turn.
The thing is I'm not sure we should be folding this river. We don't really have a great read on villain (As far as I can tell from the description). Edit: I really can't agree with folding this river after looking at the hand again. Pots bloated, villain could be overplaying AA, KK. Unless theres more to your read on him I don't like this fold. It almost like you took this line on the river to justify your turn call.
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#7
11-22-2005, 06:32 AM
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Re: Sketchy
What if villain put you on exactly AJ and he overplays his QQ,KK,AA. I don't know if I would lay it down but him having exactly JJ and catching his 2 outer is pretty sick.
NH [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] EDIT: Now that I look at it again. He's gotta be aware of the two sevens on the board and 3 to a straight. He's probably 3-betting with high confidence which leans a little more towards JJ.
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#8
11-22-2005, 06:58 AM
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Re: Sketchy
Given that you've only been at the table for 2 orbits + your recollections of this player aren't rock solid + you don't know what he thinks of you + the size of the pot + the action + the hands that beat you = a call in my book.
There have been too many times where I've lost value with the following line of thought: "Clearly this guy can read the board." Then I call and see that I cost myself a bet. And I've also lost more money making big laydowns than I like to think about. Perhaps he flashed you his hand, and you'll get a bunch of confidence mileage out of it, but I really think that it's not the right play without some serious history between the two of you and/or extensive observation of his play.
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#10
11-22-2005, 09:42 PM
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Re: Sketchy
Folding to a river 3-bet seems logical to me. Here's my thought though. I've seen you post a few hands recently involving a big laydown. And if I was sitting at your table, and saw you raise the river and fold to a three bet, I'd be making a mental note for later. Bob, if you make folds like this a regular event, people are going to start taking shots at you on the river, because they've marked you as someone who will believe them if they represent a big hand. My opinion is you should pay off more. You don't want to cultivate a reputation as a folder.
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