Crossposted from HUSH -- a turn decision for jason_t.

[Entity]

This hand is crossposted from HUSH. I think it's probably worthwhile for some of you to take a look at. Post here before you read the advice there -- I think this could serve as an interesting hand.

Playing 4-handed Party .5/1. We are all playing seriously and are playing our best. Entity is running bad from what it seems -- not showing down many good hands, in fact, not showing down much at all. Jason_t is running good and playing well, and has been playing quite aggressively (though usually with the cards to back up the play).

I'm posting this from jason_t's perspective and am keeping my cards unknown.

Preflop: I am UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Entity calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Entity checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, Entity calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Entity bets</font>, I....

[/ QUOTE ]

[TylerK]

Your play makes zero sense, therefore I raise and fold to a 3-bet.

Edit: Read the HUSH thread and apparently people believe Entity is third-leveling this and could bluff 3-bet. I have no way of knowing this, so this is my play against an unknown.

[SackUp]

looks like he picked up a flush draw and doesn't give you credit for the A.

He would have c/r the A, so I think he picked up hearts or has a pp and wants you to fold your overs.

Raise and fold to a 3-bet

[SippinSoma]

So you know Entity is capable of bluff 3-betting, yet you raise the turn anyway?

[TylerK]

[ QUOTE ]
So you know Entity is capable of bluff 3-betting, yet you raise the turn anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, the part before "edit:" is what I wrote before I read the HUSH thread.

[crunchy1]

I think the pot size makes this a pretty easy fold for jason here. Yes Entity may be bluffing. He also may be leading in the hopes that jason (who's been 'quite aggressive up to this point') will raise and allow Entity to 3-bet. We need to remember that they're each playing tough and Entity cold-called PF. For Entity to be bluffing here he would've had to have planned this from before the flop. IMO, jason doesn't have the showdown value with 77 on this board to justify putting in 2BBs in a 3BB pot to see a showdown.

[oreogod]

His turn bet could mean a couple things:

1.Damn good hand hoping to 3-bet it.
2.air hoping to bluff 3-bet
3. Mid pair leading which would be kind of a weird line, given the flop action
4.semi bluff bet a draw, which would be a little wierd against JT.

So now if we assign probabilites to each of the involved scenarios about...going about .80(#1-#2) + .20(#3-#4) = a good time to call IMO.

I could be wrong though, but unless Ent cares to enlighten me to a different scenario, I think J_ts best line is to call here.

[oreogod]

I dont think my assertation is quite on, but Im to lazy to change it now. Missed the pot size there.

[chief444]

I think raising this is the last option I'd choose. I think it's close between calling and folding. I'd lean towards fold, being careful not to make a habit of it. I think Rob's got either a really good hand or total bs. I think if Jason raises Rob will realize it's very possible he'll fold to a 3-bet. I think this is a case where if Jason just calls it shows as much strength if not more than a raise. Those are my first thoughts. However, I'll admit that I don't play much 3-4 handed because I probably fold a little too much in these spots. Rob could actually be value betting 66/44/K-high+flush draw or something here. Interesting hand.

[davet]

I think guestion #1 is why are you raising UTG with 77 ?