I can't get away from top set here can I?

[BobboFitos]

Post deleted by BobboFitos

[scdavis0]

I mean jesus.. how can he have 1600 posts

[FreakDaddy]

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I mean jesus.. how can he have 1600 posts

[/ QUOTE ]

I would prefer as an educated adult who has played A LOT of poker, that if you disagree with what I post then you respond in kind and explain why you disagree. There are a LOT of people on this forum who play poker (especially online) strictly by the math. That's fine. In this particular situation, I would BET that you are behind enough here that a fold isn't giving anything up. You likely only have 22-23% equity to boat up here, and unless I'm doing the math wrong you're getting only 76-77% here.

If you think you've seen passive fish mini-raise a turn card like this when they are drawing or possibly behind, well what can I say, then either they aren't truly passive fish OR you've been extremely lucky.

Is there something you don't understand about my post, or you just think that hero should shove it in because well, look he has top trips here.... duhh...

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]


I would prefer as an educated adult who has played A LOT of poker, that if you disagree with what I post then you respond in kind and explain why you disagree. There are a LOT of people on this forum who play poker (especially online) strictly by the math. That's fine. In this particular situation, I would BET that you are behind enough here that a fold isn't giving anything up. You likely only have 22-23% equity to boat up here, and unless I'm doing the math wrong you're getting only 76-77% here.

If you think you've seen passive fish mini-raise a turn card like this when they are drawing or possibly behind, well what can I say, then either they aren't truly passive fish OR you've been extremely lucky.

Is there something you don't understand about my post, or you just think that hero should shove it in because well, look he has top trips here.... duhh...

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero if behind has 10 outs. 1 king, 3 queens, 3 nines, and 3 sevens. It's possible an out is tainted-like vs JT[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] a Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] will give someone a str8 flush. Or, some of his outs are used, like vs QT[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Or, he's not really behind, but some of the outs he's looking for, are taken, like vs 77 now he only has 7 outs. (the 7 will make 77 quads, and the other 7s which would pair the board are in villains' hand!)

But most of the time we assume we're behind aflush or str8. (JT or XX[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) This leaves 4 cards "known" 4 on the board, and 52 in a deck of cards. If we have 10 outs, 10 out of 44 = 22.7% equity.

Hero, to call, needs to put 76$ in the pot. If he calls, the pot size will be 380. So, if he has 20% equity (and he has more) pot odds alone he should make the call.

This is assuming we're always behind and that we wont win anything more on the river!

The reality is sometimes Hero is ahead and if he just calls river on a non pairing board will go check/check. And sometimes, he calls and the river pairs, Hero pushes, and gets called.

So no matter what (even 100% behind and wont get paid off if Hero improves) folding would be criminal.

edit - if those stipulations are true, folding is not criminal parsay, but it would be passing up a +EV situation. (because it costs hero 76 to play a pot where his pot equity is worth ~86, so passing is 0EV, but calling is +10$)

[FreakDaddy]

True, I did make a mistake in not assuming hero will be paid off here(if he just calls), which he will most of the time if he connects - that was a lack of thinking. You could have just pointed that out though and I would have went... uhh... duhhh. I'm not saying that I never brain fart. Your calculations are a little off though.

[scdavis0]

FREAKDADDY HE'S GETTING 4 TO 1 ON THE TURN

GOOD DAY SIR

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
FREAKDADDY HE'S GETTING 4 TO 1 ON THE TURN

GOOD DAY SIR

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, but you initially said 3 to 1 and I did my math off of that without double checking the hand. I guess you deleted that now.

Grow up.

[BobboFitos]

Want to reedit what I said -

freak daddy, posts like yours show a huge lack of understanding. I dont mean this in a personal negative attack or whatnot, but you probably should cut down on posting and read more

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Want to reedit what I said -

freak daddy, posts like yours show a huge lack of understanding. I dont mean this in a personal negative attack or whatnot, but you probably should cut down on posting and read more

[/ QUOTE ]

Really, what do you think I'm not understanding? Because no offense, but I'll put my winnings and poker tracker stats against anyone on this forum. I think I know a little something about what I'm doing. Perhaps you're not understanding what I'm saying?

I used to stick my chips in here without thinking either. I think most on here would think that's standard poker. I don't think so anymore. There's obviously a lot more levels than understanding hero has X% chance to boat up versus what odds he's being offered versus what probably hand ranges villian has.

And just so there's no misunderstanding, against almost any other opponent, I'd stick it in on the turn here. At the very least, a call is in order because the hand ranges dicatate that.

I have to admit though that is offensive to watch so many fat ego's but heads and make comments at other posters, without considering what they are saying or at the very least asking questions about their line of thinking - or even if you think so - lack of thinking. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

And so there is no further misunderstanding, what you said is offensive and rude.

[scdavis0]

I'm just gonna edit this to say yeah your math is wrong.