3/6 TT am i a fish?

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Anyone that fold this flop is insane.

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I was wrong when I said that this is a clear fold since the pot is so big, but I think you need to elaborate a bit more before I will say that it is "insane" to fold this flop.

[TheHip41]

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Anyone that fold this flop is insane.

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I was wrong when I said that this is a clear fold since the pot is so big, but I think you need to elaborate a bit more before I will say that it is "insane" to fold this flop.

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Yes, someone 'might' have a flush draw. Think about what you are saying though. We have one capper out of the BB. He doesn't have a 9. We have and UTG raiser who raised this flop, he doesn't have a 9. One of them almost surely has a bigger PP, or maybe AJ. The thing you need to think about is hand ranges. This isn't a 6 way pot on the flop were people might have a 9, making the set outs dirty.

I think if you hit a T on the turn, you are going to be good about 90% of the time. Only trailing if it's the flush T, or someone actually has JJ.

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When the action comes to you on the flop I think it is likely that sb holds QQ-AA to be capping from the sb when it comes to him 3 bet, and utg most likely holds JJ-AA or AJ. For all these hands you are drawing to 6 outs except the 3 combinations of JJ possible out of a total of 37 hands. If someone has JJ the 9s are still outs but some times he fills up and you lose so you have about 3 outs.

On average you can estimate around 5.75 outs which would require you to be getting 7-1 to break even. With all of SB's aggression so far he may raise behind the hero, but even when paying 3 bets to see the turn the pot would only have to be 21 sbs to justify the call and that is covered easily by implied odds with all the agression so far.

On the turn when UTG folds and sb has raised or bet with every chance Hero is likely always behind to AA or KK and getting 12-1 with 6 outs and closing the action hero can make an easy call.

On the river you need to be good about 7% of the time to justify this call but the way SB has acted so far I don't think he is holding a worse hand nearly that often so hero should fold.

[SteveL91]

I think calling the flop is fine:

A) The available flush draw is [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and you hold the T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. While your flush draw is dubious at best, it does mean the other remaining T's are clean.

2) Given the PF action, it's highly unlikely that either villain has a 9; therefore, your gutshot outs are mostly clean. But, even if you wanted to discount the 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] entirely, you'd still have 5 outs. While you're not quite getting the required odds, it's close, and more importantly, you'll definitely make up the tiny deficit.

Turn is a call.

River I think is a fold. I just don't think you're going to see an overplayed flush draw often enough to justify the call.

[W. Deranged]

I think this hand is well-played.

Folding the flop would be pretty bad. Do some hand-reading folks, in general all 6 outs to a set or straight are good. When they're not, it's because someone has JJ, but that' not all that likely.

With some redraws and discounting, and a slight boost for a weakish [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flush draw, I think it's reasonable to suspect we have 20% equity or so in this pot. Folding for 1 BB on the flop in a pot that already has 8 would be quite bad. Even if it gets capped we're really not in that bad shape, investing 2 BB to hold our own in a pot that'll have over 10 BB in it by that point.

The only difficult decision in this hand in my opinion is whether or not to call the river.

Once UTG is out of there it becomes more likely that we're ahead. SB might be a big enough maniac to have AK or 99 or something. Maybe. We need like 7-8% equity to justify a call here. Put a read on and make a decision. Some sense of villain's post-flop play would be useful here. Calling might be good for peace-of-mind as well.