QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.

[krimson]

Both players to act after the 3-bet have already invest one bet. I think this psychologically ties a lot players to seeing the turn. Reads would definitely make a difference here for me. If they were tight-asses I would just call and tie them to the turn, if they were loose fish, I have no hesitation in 3-betting it.

Even so, we only need the pot to be 3-way to have equity on our bets.

[sean c]

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I don't 3 bet the flop. Its not like I can buy any outs. I think this is a situation to call the raise and hope the turn comes with something to get sexy with.

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The 3-bet is for value. We have an equity edge against 3+ opponents given the flush and (nut) gutshot draws.

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We do have an equity edge but we also stand to knock people out on the 3 bet as well and thus lose bets on the turn.

I think the 3bet is close, but I only like if everyone is going to stay along for the ride. I think you fold people out facing 2 cold too often here, in which case we lose equity.

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Hero's equity is around 45% five people have put money in on the flop. One of those players raised and one cold called two. I don't think the flop 3-bet is anywhere near close even if a player or two folds.

[krimson]

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What about the OESD that we just picked up? Shouldn't we have about 15 outs then, making us roughly 33%?

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Yes, I was thinking OESD/FD but 13 outs popped into my head for some reason, rather than 15. Thanks, post fixed.

[Bob T.]

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Even so, we only need the pot to be 3-way to have equity on our bets.

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This is the crux of the matter. This pot is going to be at least three way to the turn, so the hero is getting value on his flop bets. I think he should go ahead and cap it if the opportunity arises.

I don't think he has any fold equity on the turn, so on the turn, I think he can check. Although this makes it transparent that he has a draw, it doesn't tell the extent of his draw, and if he makes a straight, instead of the flush, I think he can still checkraise the river.

[damaniac]

It's probably a fairly meaningless bet. You get called in two spots, you break pretty even. In three spots, you gain 1/3 of a BB or so, which is nice, but I suppose sometimes two guys fold or you get raised, which sucks. I guess it depends on how often each of things happen, but I suspect it works out to break fairly even from an EV standpoint, at least readless.

[einbert]

Hi TKO,

The flop 3-bet is mandatory. Well-played.

However, betting the turn here is pretty much throwing away money.

Happy holidays,
einbert

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We only make our hand ~30-33% of the time on the river at this point

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How do you calculate this? Is this number of outs vs. what we have left in the deck?

[krimson]

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We only make our hand ~30-33% of the time on the river at this point

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How do you calculate this? Is this number of outs vs. what we have left in the deck?

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46 cards left, so our odds are 1546-15) = 15:31, which is rougly 1:2 or 33%.

A quicker method for a rough calculation is to take the number of outs and multiply by 4 on the flop or 2 on the turn. So 15x2 = 30%. This undershoots it a bit, so it's reasonable to use for "value" calculations.

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The flop 3-bet is mandatory. Well-played.

However, betting the turn here is pretty much throwing away money.

Happy holidays,
einbert

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Thanks; you too.

I decided to 3-bet the flop against this particular lineup as they had already put in money and were very loose players. Had the button not called the CO's raises, I probably would have just called. I think the flop is a close decision either way.

As for the turn, I would have check/called had the 9 stayed in the deck; however, the fact that I picked up 4 more outs changed my plan, and made me doubt the best play. I figured the pot was so large already that opponents would be calling with anything. I still think the turn is the most questionable street.

[MattiasL]

With all 12 outs being live, you have ~45% equity. This means you almost break even HU. Three-handed the edge is clear. So the flop bet definitely has value.