Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside

[Duffman]

Gotta bet that flop. If they still check to you on the turn bet again. Check the river if possible. Otherwise call/fold depending on your reads.

Hi Dr.,

I had wonderful, insightful things to say then Harv stole most of them. Listen, for he is wise.

I could be influenced by my newfound love affair with shorthanded poker, but I think you need to try to be stealing WAY more than 23 % of the time. At the loose 1/2 games you won't get that many opportunities, granted, but from the cutoff you should be stealing with every ace and most kings, every pocket pair, any two face cards and your higher suited connectors.

I don't know how many players are seeing the flop in the games you're playing with, but you might consider limping fewer weak speculative hands like suited Kings without at least 3 limpers and raising more of your marginal broadway holdings in late position such as AT o and KJ o. If the game is really juicy then switch this, of course, and play all sorts of suited connectors and just limp with your marginal broadway holdings if not folding them outright.

As others have said, flip your aggression on its head. River aggression of 1 to 2.5 is fine, 3 is outrageous and shows you're folding too many rivers. I bet you slowplay more than you should, as well.

Post hands. And if you still can't get the game, come play 1/2 shorthanded. You'll be amazed how quickly you learn.

[rfsch]

My guess is you are beat with JJ. A check on the river would've/may have saved you a bet.

Have enjoyed and learned a lot from this thread. Thanks for bringing it to us.

[Bob T.]

Ok, these posts point out a big part of the problem.

You aren't even letting the trees obscure the forest. You are letting the bark get in the way.

November was a very good month for me, assuming I don't crash and burn in the last 36 hours. This weekend, I entered my data into statking.

I didn't win every day. In fact, in the middle of the month, I had a $992 downswing. What did I do during the downswing? I sat down at my computer, and put in my hands each day. Then what happeneed, toward the end of the month, I ran really good. So what did I do? I sat down at my computer, and put in my hands for those days too. I didn't think about the previous day, or my life to date total. I sat down, and ground out the hands that I was going to play every day.

In fact, during the part of the month that I ran very good in, I didn't win every day. And I certainly didn't win every table I opened. You have to be able to deal with losing. It comes with the game.

You said a couple posts up the thread that you had smart parents, and that you were fortunate enough to inherit some of that from them. You are making a bad assumption. Success at poker isn't just about being smart, it is also about being under emotional control. (You probably know some successful poker players who couldn't do what you do acedemically.) Do you throw big bets away, when you can't believe the joesuckout has done it to you again? 'I just have to see what he played this time.' Do you think if I win this hand, then I will be even, or up 50, or some other artificial goal, and then play the hand, regardless of what clues your opponents might be giving you that you are behind?

Here is my recommendation. There is a book by Larry Phillips, called 'Zen and the Art of Poker'. Pick it up, and read a little bit each day. Work on playing your 'A' game all the time. I coach soccer, and what I tell my players, is that I want them to work on the process, and don't worry about the product. Remember that -'PROCESS, Not PRODUCT.' If you keep making good decisions at the table, eventually, but not immediately, you will have a big stack of chips. If instead, you try and work on having a big stack of chips, you will probably make enough bad decisions along the way, that you won't.

Another book that I recommend is 'Go Rin No Sho' or 'The Book of Five Rings' by Miyamoto Musashi. It is a swordfighting text from the 17th century. You should be able to find a translation in either the business section or self improvement section of a major bookstore. It talks playing within yourself and about adapting a style that is --- no style. Instead, you always want to play the optimal style against each particular opponent. To make it simple, in Roshambo which is stronger, rock, paper, or scissors? Obviously, none of them, it depends on what your opponenent has. Playing the same way against all of your opponents isn't going to get the money. There is a time to be aggressive, a time to be passive. A time to be tight, and a time to loosen up. Even being a fricken calling station can be right occasionally.

Don't just see 20% of the flops and say I must be playing right because my statistics are right. See the right 20% of the flops, and enter the pot the right way for the current situation. I probably have similar statistics to you, but at the same time, I probably have a wider range of hands that I fold, call, and raise with. I know that this morning, at one point in time, I held the exact same two cards, in the same position on the table, on two different tables, and I laughed to myself as I raised on one table and mucked on the other. The game dynamics were very different, and in one case, I needed to raise, and in the other, the hand was unplayable. But they looked the same.

Hope this helped.
Bob T.

Hand 5

I've been attempting to steal more blinds but it hasn't been working out too well. Say I hold a pretty decent hand, like A8o, and its folded to me in the button.

I raise, and get called by BB. Flop is 2 6 7.

I bet, even though I don't have anything, but to see if he has anything.

He calls, Turn is a 10.

I still don't have anything and most of the time, the BB doesn't either. So what is the line? If I bet, he calls..then what if river is a blank? I check, since I have nothing, and he beats..I have to fold. If I do beat the river with A high, I find he calls anyways and turns over 38o and turns over his pair of threes.

Another example.

Hand 6


Two limpers to me. I raise with QQ. They both call.

Flop comes 8 K 3.

Check, I bet, they both call.

Turn is 6.

Check, I bet, Fold, 1 Call.

River is a blank.

Check to me, I bet, he calls and turns over K10o.

Hand 7

Ks10c on CO.

Everyone folds to me, I raise, BB reraises.

Flop comes Ac Jc 6s

BB checks, I bet, he calls.

Turn is 4c.

He bets, I call.

River is blank.

He bets, I??

[mojobluesman]

[ QUOTE ]
Your folded to river bet is insanely high. Before folding so-so hands like top pair on the river you have to look at the size of the pot.

You are surely folding many winners and giving up lots of money in the process.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is the correct range for "folded to a river bet"?

[MisterKing]

I dunno, I am folding hand 4 preflop, but I play more aggressive games...

Once you see the flop and have it checked to you, you've gotta bet. The rest of the hand seems player and card-specific, but I think you see later in the hand why I want to fold K8s in MP2. You're out of position with no idea where you stand. If you check the river you could easily be faced with a bet by a worse hand, or miss value by having 77 check through. If you were the one that had position, you could be the turn and check the river through, which would be my preference... I do this a lot when hands like 99 and TT catch 2+ overs and passive players are hanging around in the hand. Position saves you money when you're behind, and gets you extra $$ those times you do spike a set or two pair.

As far as hand 4 goes:

I did have position on the other 4 callers. I should have added that the person checked on the River, I bet, then he called and turn over a J.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been attempting to steal more blinds but it hasn't been working out too well. Say I hold a pretty decent hand, like A8o, and its folded to me in the button.

I raise, and get called by BB. Flop is 2 6 7.

I bet, even though I don't have anything, but to see if he has anything.

He calls, Turn is a 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where you need to adjust for loose passive players who won't fold 4th pair no kicker, and will call your steal raise with any two. Once you've value bet the flop (and it is usually a value bet when you're coming in with A8 and he has any two), you use your position on the turn. If you've made a pair or very strong draw, bet it again (if folding equity + draw equity > 50%). Here's the key: if you have no pair and no draw, CHECK BEHIND on the turn. You will often draw a better hand on the river, and when you don't it will be easy to judge where you stand versus straightforward opponents. They're going to bet their pairs and check their trash. Even when they check the river, I'll still often check behind with ace high. You can't bet loose passives out of a hand. Trying to do so will cost $$$.

[ QUOTE ]
Two limpers to me. I raise with QQ. They both call.

Flop comes 8 K 3.

Check, I bet, they both call.

Turn is 6.

Check, I bet, Fold, 1 Call.

River is a blank.

Check to me, I bet, he calls and turns over K10o.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good turn bet, but you need to check the river through. Yes, it is very important to value bet rivers, but again, against loose passive guys, you don't often have a value bet here without at least top pair.

[ QUOTE ]

3rd Example:

Ks10c on CO.

Everyone folds to me, I raise, BB reraises.

Flop comes Ac Jc 6s

BB checks, I bet, he calls.

Turn is 4c.

He bets, I call.

River is blank.

He bets, I??

[/ QUOTE ]

You fold king high because it wins 0% of the time. I like your flop bet (getting 6:1 on an unlikely fold by him, plus the gutshot means the bet was probably ok), but I hate your turn call. Much of this depends on who BB is, and how he'd play hands like 55, A9s, and QT of course. Against any reasonable player, I am folding the turn. What can he have that you beat? Hell, if he's reasonable enough, I am checking the flop through and hoping to pair my king or catch the gutter on the turn. IMO you dumped at least 1BB on this hand, and if you called the river two.

[Munga30]

Hand 5, you have position. When he checks to you a second time on the turn, you have to consider your opponent. What are his tendencies? If you don't know this opponent right now, what would you like to know most about him? What are the tendencies of a "default" opponent in this spot (hint: they don't fold enough).

Hand 6, put him on a range of hands. Could he be drawing to something? Unlikely on this board. Could he be trying to call you down with second or middle pair? Unlikely, as you (i.e. preflop raisers) often have AK and you hit your K. This is common fishy thinking. Could he have a K? Possible, and with every bet he calls, it becomes more likely. Does your opponent like to fold or does he like to call? What does the default 1/2 player like to do in this spot?

Hand 7, I check behind on this flop a lot unless I know this guy is weak enough to fold the flop for one bet. I call on the turn and I fold on the river when all I have is K high.


Game selection. Are you playing where the best games are or where the best bonuses are?

Do you take notes on opponents? Maybe you never see 50% of those notes again, but the process of distilling how they play is invaluable (as are the other 50% of the notes).

Are you using a HUD to get some opponent info on the table?