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  #41  
Old 03-21-2005, 12:32 AM
tolbiny tolbiny is offline
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Default Re: for everyone in a 300+ downswing

"how do you maintain a decent winrate with a 400+ downswing or multiple 300+ ones?"

because (theoretically) we have upswings too-
My feb started of with a 30 bb upswing at 15/30 live in vegas, then a 110 bb downswing at the 5-10 sh, then a 260 bb upswing, then a 380 bb downswin. Since that down swing ended i have had several days with 50 bb downswings, but have recoverad all of the 380 plus around 30 more bb's.

Prior to last month the largest downswing i had was around 130 bb's at 5-10 and 10-20- this was over a span of 600 hours or so of live play spread out over three years.
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  #42  
Old 03-21-2005, 12:45 AM
arkady arkady is offline
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Default Re: for everyone in a 300+ downswing

I have had a -200+ bb downswing every 3 weeks at SH. Loving life
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  #43  
Old 03-21-2005, 01:49 AM
chio chio is offline
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Default Re: for everyone in a 300+ downswing

[ QUOTE ]
you probably haven't played very much

[/ QUOTE ]

depends on what a lot is. i think i've played a substantial amount. 80k at 5-10 and 40k at 10-20. definitely not as much as some. and maybe not as much people with these huge streaks. who knows.

i just thought it was interesting when i checked and didnt really find any huge streaks.
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  #44  
Old 03-21-2005, 01:51 AM
cartman cartman is offline
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Default Re: My 5 biggest downswings are...

I use the concept of "drawdown" to define bad stretches. I develop trading systems for financial markets and the worst "drawdown" for a particular system over a particular time period is the farthest distance your account balance ever was from its all-time peak before breaking into new all-time high territory.

So you don't know how bad it got until it is over. Once you break into new high territory, it's over and you subtract the bottom of your valley from the previous all time high (the one that you just eclipsed).

An example would be that your bankroll reaches exactly 100,000 for the first time and then you start getting killed. You have good days and bad days, but overall things are going badly. At one point your bankroll gets down to 75,000 and then miraculously things turn around. You continue to have good and bad days, but overall your bankroll is growing again. Your "drawdown" isn't over though until you surpass 100,000 (If you do without going under 75,000, then your drawdown was 25,000). If you go back up to 90,000 and then back to 60,000 and THEN to 100,001, your drawdown was 40,000.

Cartman
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  #45  
Old 03-21-2005, 05:12 AM
Peter_rus Peter_rus is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Moscow
Posts: 647
Default My biggest downswings and upswings by levels

These are all my swings from all tracked levels (3/6 full not included as i have no tracker during playing it). Total of 352K hands played by me.

Net/hands played to fix swing/days played to fix swing

5/10 6 max

-159BB, 2049 hands, 4 days (it was at very beginning of my play at 5/10 and using pokertraker)
+653BB, 7771 hands, 10 days
+451BB, 5761 hands, 6 days

10/20 6 max

-97BB, 7360 hands, 2 days
+782BB, 16759 hands, 13 days

15/30 6 max

-337BB, 9046 hands, 7 days
+405BB, 5509 hands, 5 days

15/30 full

-300BB, 3978 hands, 3 days
-251BB, 10657 hands, 9 days.
-186BB, 1770 hands, 1 day
+523BB, 10928 hands, 6 days
+919BB, 17207 hands, 12 days

30/60 full

-125BB, 8678 hands, 3 days
+174BB, 4359 hands, 2 days

So finally i had 3 250+ downswings and 2 150+ downswings in a lifetime (of course there were numberless 50-150 streaks). It's obvious for me that 300+ downstreaks happen due to my tilt and if i play good during them it would result 230-260bb downstreaks.
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  #46  
Old 03-21-2005, 05:54 AM
kiddo kiddo is offline
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Default Re: for everyone in a 300+ downswing

Playing 120K hands at 5/10 and 10/20 and not having one +200BB downswing is on the extreme side. As long as u aint better then all the posters at this forum you have been lucky.

There is no way to escape these downswings (more then being lucky). How big a downswing can become is dependent on your Standard Deviation and true winrate. In SH games, if u want the highest winrate u have to accept a pretty high standard deviation. Low SD means not so high winrate.


By the way, 100BB is actually not what people think about as a downswing, two bad but not really bad days are enough for that.
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  #47  
Old 03-21-2005, 09:27 AM
stripsqueez stripsqueez is offline
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Location: Adelaide , South Australia
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Default Re: My 5 biggest downswings are...

havent done 400BB's but i got close once

i always think having a bigger than before downswing is a long term plus - the other big plus i've noticed is that you can play other games which have less than half these sort of swings for similar reward and laugh at blokes who complain about it

stripsqueez - chickenhawk
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  #48  
Old 03-21-2005, 10:07 AM
Hans Gruber Hans Gruber is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 8
Default Re: for everyone in a 300+ downswing

[ QUOTE ]
how do you maintain a decent winrate with a 400+ downswing or multiple 300+ ones? those are HUGE losses. i just don't get it, because all these players i thought were solid are annoucing these massive losses.

i don't even think i'm in the top tier of players, but the biggest downswing i've had is 170 BB, and a couple of 100 BB that i didn't even notice. maybe it's a different style of play? maybe some people aren't winning players (esp if downswing is over a lot of hands)? i don't get it...

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you playing NL or Limit? It is EXTREMELY easy to lose 100BB in a day, an hour, or even 1 hand playing NL. You should be buying into a NL ring game with 100BB, and that buy-in can be gone in one bad beat.
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  #49  
Old 03-21-2005, 11:11 PM
chio chio is offline
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Posts: 429
Default Re: for everyone in a 300+ downswing

[ QUOTE ]
Playing 120K hands at 5/10 and 10/20 and not having one +200BB downswing is on the extreme side.

[/ QUOTE ]
hmm that's what i'm beginning to think also

[ QUOTE ]
As long as u aint better then all the posters at this forum you have been lucky.

[/ QUOTE ]
i guess i have been lucky

thanks for the analysis, though
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  #50  
Old 03-21-2005, 11:35 PM
LA_Price LA_Price is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Merry old England
Posts: 41
Default Re: My 5 biggest downswings are...

I play all games and here's my standard deviation from all of them in order of greatest to least

Limit Holdem 15-30 565 $/Hr
Pot limit Omaha 2/4 290 $/Hr
PLO hi/lo 1/2 255 $/Hr
Limit 7Stud 10-20 207 $/Hr
Limit stud/8 10-20 174 $/Hr
Limit Omaha hi/Lo 10/20 141 $/Hr
NL Hold'em 2/4 128 $/Hr

I play razz as well but don't have enough of a samlple size to say where it lies among the others. I'm an over 1/BB hour winner at all limit games and 10BB/100 at all NL and pot limit games.

Basically limit holdem is the swingiest game around. More money goes into the pot early than in any other game. But it's also one of the most profitable games around because of this. My advice is to diversify your risk and learn to play more than just limit hold'em. Losing 300BB can have a drastic effect on the quality of your game. If you also learn something that will book you steady wins with less variance it will make your limit hold'em game that much better.

Good luck,
LA_Price
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