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  #1  
Old 12-21-2003, 12:35 AM
DrPhysic DrPhysic is offline
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Location: San Antonio, Tx
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Default Calculation of probability of a flush draw

Hand is Ah xh,
flop is xh xh (any other card not a heart)
Probability of drawing the flush:

Everybody knows its 1/4 + 1/4 = 50% right?

My calculation seems to be about as dumb and I don't understand why.

I think the proper formula is
(1-((47-9)/47)*((46-9)/46)) = 1-(36*35/47*46) = 1-.583 = .417

But all the charts I see say it's ~.36

Would one of you math buffs show me the error of my ways, please?

D [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
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  #2  
Old 12-21-2003, 02:16 AM
bigpooch bigpooch is offline
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Default Re: Calculation of probability of a flush draw

47-9=38 and 46-9=37 so the result should be 1-(38*37/47*46)
or 378/1081 or about 0.34968.
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  #3  
Old 12-21-2003, 11:32 AM
DrPhysic DrPhysic is offline
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Default Re: Calculation of probability of a flush draw

Thanks.
I was so worried about the formula, I forgot how to subtract. I knew this was dumb, just not that dumb.

D
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