30-60 River Decision

[Sparks]

[ QUOTE ]
However, it is your read. If we go with that and you were *that* sure he had AT, then it's much, much better to fold the turn than it is to call the turn and fold the river.

As it plays out, you must call the river. Not only do you have a very strong hand that I think you didn't play strongly enough.

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I'm not so sure. Although I had a strong read when he bet the turn, a fold didn't seem right, with a card to come. And a raise would be the worst play. Why would I raise into a hand that has me beat, with a non-threatening board? He either calls, then checks (or bets) the river, or, he 3-bets me right there, and I have to lay it down without a chance of catching on the river. Regardless, I did call the turn, and when he bets the river, I now have a very strong read (90%), which is the whole point of this post. He simply has to have AT. There is no other hand that would make much sense.

As geormet has said, it's probably just the difference between live and online play. Online, I agree, it's a quick call on the river. But this live situation is a very specific hand-reading exercise.

While there are several analyses of AQ, and "donk turn bet" (whatever that is) and such, I'm more of the school of simplicity, seeing the hand and the betting for what it is, and not over-thinking it. I raised PF and on the flop, and this typical player bet into me on the turn. I'm almost surely beat, and that's the end of it. A call on the river is incorrect. To recommend calling the river is just a game theory answer, and is missing, I think, the nature of this particular hand. Still, the responses now with their analysis (even if I disagree), are helpful. Thanks.

Sparks

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
Although I had a strong read when he bet the turn, a fold didn't seem right, with a card to come.

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With a read that strong, a turn fold then becomes absolutely correct. With 6.5 big bets on the turn (assuming EP dropped out on the flop), you are asked to call 7.5:1 when you *know* you only have 3 outs (44:3 or 14.6:1 pot odds). Compound this with the possibility you are wrong and he could have a boat, and you are drawing dead part of the time. These are horrible odds knowing what you know even if you feel you're going to get 2 more big bets on the river if you catch a K.

Just my general feeling from this hand. You're playing scared poker. Playing no limit for about two years has made me appreciate strong, but not super strong limit hands like TPTK and how aggression is the key to this game.

If you have a strong read or tell on the turn that only you are privy to knowing, fine. Just fold the turn and be done with it. However, if you're calling the turn, you absolutely must call the river. Don't contradict yourself by calling the turn and folding the river.

Yes, you were right in this case, but by the river, you only have to have a winner 1 in 9 times to make the call correct. Odds I'll take any day with your hand.

Garland

[Sparks]

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However, if you're calling the turn, you absolutely must call the river. Don't contradict yourself by calling the turn and folding the river.

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Huh? If the turn call was a mistake (and it may have been), then compound it by calling the river? I had a good read going into the turn, and a very solid read on the river given his bet. Why in the hell would I call the river?


[ QUOTE ]
by the river, you only have to have a winner 1 in 9 times to make the call correct. Odds I'll take any day with your hand.

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I'm 1 in 9 at best, probably more like 1 in 20. I don't like my odds. I should have folded.

Sparks

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
To recommend calling the river is just a game theory answer, and is missing, I think, the nature of this particular hand.

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Folding the river is a very bad standard play given this board and action.

When you ask a question like this, we can't read your mind. We just go off the info you post. There's no way for us to take into account the strength of your read. If you're so sure you're beaten because you were there and we weren't, then don't expect to get advice of any value. Just trust your read.

That said, no matter your read, calling the turn and folding the river still makes no sense to me.