Raising small pairs on the button for set value. (theory)

[ReadyEddie]

My question is simply how many limpers do you need to have to raise a small pocket pair strictly for set value. Im also assuming you're not gonna get limp reraised. But you might get 3 betted from the blinds.

HFAP or SSHE says you need 1:5 odds to play the pair for set value.

The problem with raising them on the button is the chance of the blinds not coming along.

So whats the minimum number of limpers you need to raise?

[Nick C]

I'm probably the wrong person to ask, since I don't think I've ever raised a hand like 33 on the Button after a bunch of limpers.

Anyway, though, your odds against flopping a set are about 7.5:1. If you're just playing for set value (and against a large field, you pretty much are), building the pot preflop cuts into your implied odds, since your larger initial investment against the odds gives you more bets to make up postflop. The size of the pot will encourage people to stay in, though, which will assist you in making up bets (though you will sometimes also flop a set and then get outdrawn).

After you raise, sometimes you'll get checked to on the flop and get a free look at the turn.

And, occasionally, the pot will be so big that you'll want to draw to your set on the turn even if you don't get checked to. (Sometimes your preflop raise will tie you to the pot this way.)

Anyway, I think the raise you're talking about is a legitimate play that I pretty much never make.

[bozlax]

Going all the way to the river, or just the flop? I.e. if you don't hit your set on the flop, do you fold?

With a pocket pair, you've got a 12% chance of hitting your set on the flop, so to raise for value you need enough people in the pot with you that you're putting in less than 12% of the money...so, 8 callers.

You've got about a 19% chance of hitting your set if you're willing to run all the way to the river, so you only need 4 callers, then, but that's assuming that everyone let's you have free cards on the flop and turn. If you're not willing to assume that, then you need to include the cost of those bets in your calculations.

[Redd]

Don't forget to factor in that a set isn't the nuts and wins about 75% of the time. If we're going stricly by value, 7.5:1/0.75=10:1 payoff required. So I'd say you'd need to be the 11th guy in.

[bozlax]

Don't we assume when betting/raising for value that we're going to a winning hand? Isn't it kind of like when we disregard the fact that 18 cards that we can't see have been dealt out of the deck when we're calculating odds?

[Jake (The Snake)]

Qtip started some discussion on this not too long ago. I think at least one of the threads made the digests so check those out.

If I recall, I think I remember it being about 4 or 5. But honestly this subject is difficult to quantify and the difference between calling and raising isn't enough to lose sleep over since this situation rarely happens.

[Fnord]

In B&M games I make this raise all the time because I'm getting a free turn like 90% of the time. Online I get donk-bet too much to not want to call, unless my raise gives me legit fold equity (1 or 2 limpers, tight blinds.)

[Wired Jokers]

Chris Daddy Cool had a great post and follow-up thread on a 44 hand he played a while back, during which he raised on the button after a plethora of limpers.

For the life of me, I can't find the thread. Maybe someone has a link? I wish I would have put it in my favorites. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]