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#61
10-25-2005, 11:34 AM
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Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
[ QUOTE ]
I'm using all those "" "" because this is a tricky subject, as any issue that has to do with "confidence" and "levels of belief". [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, statistics can get really hairy and assumptions have huge impacts. Also, when hypothesis testing one can get different results depending on which null hypothesis is chosen. Lies, damn lies, and statistics indeed! 
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#62
10-25-2005, 11:42 AM
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Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
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Regardless of the #s, Irie makes a valid point. Its just story-telling at 500 SNGs. We don't need interim results unless the individual has prospectively defined success and futility stopping boundries for quitting poker. [/ QUOTE ] When you say this, you just need to realize that ANY specific number of results (i.e, sample size), particularly one that is achievable by a human-being, is no more than "interim results" in the pure sense. Therefore, according to your own logic, you shouldn't be interested in any kind of results posted, no matter how relatively big is the sample size, and who is the poster.
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#63
10-25-2005, 11:44 AM
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Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
When I say interim I mean part of the way to the necessary sample size for showing such a result with reasonable power. True, all data is "interim" data if you consider all data that could be collected but this isn't what I meant.
Indy
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#64
10-25-2005, 11:56 AM
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Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
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This gets at the heart of another big misconception in the world: that science proves things. A lot of people are ignorant that science consists of theories which are supported (or not) by experiments. There is no "LAW of Gravity," for instance, it is the "Theory of Gravity," which can (and has been to some extent) invalidated. (Clarification: Newtonian Gravity does not explain some observations. This resulted in the relativity theories. Newtonian gravity is a very good approximation in most of the cases humans have to deal with, but not entirely accurate. Relavativity could likewise be wrong in ways we have yet to discover.) [/ QUOTE ] Good points and analogy. [ QUOTE ] Relavativity could likewise be wrong in ways we have yet to discover [/ QUOTE ] You probably know that, but there are aspects of quantum mechanics that completely contradict basic assumptions of "relativity", and that's why in some senses relativity was already "discovered" to be wrong, or at least not consistent with a different and very valid and successful theory. Einstein was very unhappy about it too, although he had a big part in the emergence of the qunatum theory as well. Yes, I think it's about time we discuss these things here! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#65
10-25-2005, 12:19 PM
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Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
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You probably know that, but there are aspects of quantum mechanics that completely contradict basic assumptions of "relativity", and that's why in some senses relativity was already "discovered" to be wrong, or at least not consistent with a different and very valid and successful theory. Einstein was very unhappy about it too, although he had a big part in the emergence of the qunatum theory as well. Yes, I think it's about time we discuss these things here! [/ QUOTE ] I find these things extremely interesting. If only I were smart [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#67
10-25-2005, 12:24 PM
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Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
Hey stupidsucker, if you really find these things interesting you can find quite a lot of popular good science/physics books directed at people who don't have any advanced educations at these matters. It is indeed interesting and you don't need a lot of math, or to be exceptionally smart, IMO, in order to understand at least some of the ideas/theories.
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#68
10-25-2005, 12:28 PM
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Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
As someone once wrote somewhere:
God DOES play dice, but they're loaded, so it's OK. In other words: God does play poker, but only on-line which is obviously completely rigged so Einstein shouldn't be bothered. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#69
10-25-2005, 12:28 PM
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Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
I think this is all over my head but i will give some thoughts. I don't believe you can ever have a definitive sample size to know your true ROI. It will get closer and closer to a true number the more you play but that number will have a margin of error. So to be a definitive sample size wouldn't you have to encountered every situation possible many times to get a true read of your play. I think this is impossible due to the fact of the variable the villian brings into the situation. I believe this creates so many variables and other factors that the it would be impossible to ever know your "true ROI".
Corey
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#70
10-25-2005, 12:32 PM
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Re: Why I hate \"Look at my 500-SNG penis\" posts
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You probably know that, but there are aspects of quantum mechanics that completely contradict basic assumptions of "relativity", and that's why in some senses relativity was already "discovered" to be wrong, or at least not consistent with a different and very valid and successful theory. Einstein was very unhappy about it too, although he had a big part in the emergence of the qunatum theory as well. Yes, I think it's about time we discuss these things here! [/ QUOTE ] I find these things extremely interesting. If only I were smart [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] It all starts when a nulecule comes out of its shell.
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