Standard 'Please Hear Me Out & Help Me' Post. Please.

[DonkeyKong]

Hello Small Stakers,

Here is my situation. I played Hold Em a little many years ago but started playing consistently (online) a year ago. I had read a book or two back in the day and then read HPFAP. Although it didn't really sink in until about the 3rd or 4th time I read it last summer. I have also read SSH, TPFAP, TOP, SS, Poker Essays 2 by Mason and most of 2 Ciaffone books...

I have thought about the math/probability a lot over the last year and feel I have a very good grasp of the fundamentals at this point.

My plan was to take my time and build my bankroll as I learned through reading how deceptively complex Hold Em is and I trusted this advice.

So I stated playing 1/2, quickly moved to 2/4 and steadily built my bankroll up -- consistently winning.

Then I moved to 3/6 and could not win. I started to drain my bankroll and stopped for a bit and re-read my materials and went over my notes. I decided to try playing 300 hand sessions. I would try to play as error-free as possible for 300 hands and then take a break. I would keep a running tally of when I thought I made a mistake and review the hand to figure out if a bet/call/fold was indeed justified.

But same result: when I won, I would win maybe $80-100 and when I lost I would lose $100-180... Losing sessions outnumbered winning sessions so I was getting beat up.

I stopped playing limit and played NL tourneys. I ran my bankroll up quickly doing this. I had high ROI playing $30 and $50 SNG's and 2 and 3-table tourneys on Party.

Then I just felt like I wanted to beat 3/6 so I could continue on my poker journey. I started playing 3/6 limit again and just can't win. I feel like I have been on a terrible bad-beat-a-thon that never ends. I make a flush, someone re-draws to a full house on river. I make a set, someone makes a straight. I make 2 pair, somebody makes a set. Lately, its the 3-outer river card that has killed me (ie, holding AK vs AQ -- Ace flops, Q river)...

Now I know enough to realize that the math is supposed to come full circle but at this point, I must confront the possibility that there are significant leaks in my game.

Q. You ask how many hands I have played at 3/6?
A. ~9000 over the last 6 weeks

So, I feel like the light went on a while ago regarding understanding the game yet I can't beat 3/6. WTF?

Comments very much appreciated... I know what the standard response is: 'go back to NL tourneys.' Well, I am now obsessed with beating Limit. It is a personal competitive thing at this point. I have for now dropped back down to 2/4 to build my bankroll back but I am looking for a few pearls to help me.

FWIW, I do not own pokertracker. I know this will be a standard response too. So say I will get pokertracker.

I guess my real question is, how many hands before you feel like there is a leak in your game and you are not just on a bad downswing?

[Rubeskies]

You've only played 9,000 hands. Some of the best posters on this forum have 15K hand losing streaks and 20K hand break even streaks. 9K is not enough hands to know if you can beat the game or not.

It sounds to me like you've done the studying. Just keep plugging away as long as you started with a 300BB bankroll and you should be fine. If you go on a 300+BB downswing, then I'd be really worried.

[Cerril]

You can really only say there's a leak when you find the leak. I'd suggest going over your PT stats and seeing if you're right about the numbers going against you.

What's your WSD%? Is it in the low 30s? Are you seeing too many expensive showdowns when you should fold the turn?

What's your W$SD? Is it better than 50%? If not you might just be suffering from some bad swings as long as your WSD is pretty decent. But you might have some poor hand selection among the ones when you go to the river. 33/55 are good numbers, but 25/55 implies you aren't going to the river often enough and you're folding as many winners as losers among the 'marginal' hands.

Now check your Misc Stats. Looking just at hands that weren't folded, how are they holding up? Are you +$ in every category (with 'show only hands that were not folded' checked)? How about your Won$ at SD percentages? Does everything line up or are some of your hands really just not holding up as often.

I did all of this during my 10k hand, -150BB downswing. I found some holes in my game (I was showing down too many high card hands) and I also found evidence of terrible luck (I was hitting my flush draws a third less than I should have been and I was getting drawn out with trips far more often than I felt I should have. I was seeing far too many hands fail to improve even if I had taken them to the river). The attention to my game helped me improve as well, so when my luck turned around I managed to hit the plus side hard.

[Rubeskies]

He doesn't have PT.

[Cerril]

But he wants us to assume he'll get it. That's the best way to examine a losing streak. Otherwise it's a matter of whether you're actually confident in your play and can shrug off a small (but not too small) sample.

Also, the site wasn't mentioned. PokerStars will email you your entire history if you ask them. Party, of course, will not.

[DonkeyKong]

Thanks Cerril, I appreciate the comments.

While I don't have PT yet, I do keep running notes on hands whenever I enter a pot (VP$IP). If it ends up being a hand I am not sure on, I email it to myself and review it. I feel that I have a good feel for what is going on despite no PT stats.

re. "during my 10k hand, -150BB downswing. I found some holes in my game (I was showing down too many high card hands)"

What is a decent 'high card hand' % to be showing down? In general, I will not showdown a high card hand vs more than 1 opponent -- ~1 in 6 times. I will do it perhaps 50% of the time vs 1 opponent, depends on feel and if my opponent has seen me lay down to a raise and how many face cards are on board.

More specifically, what did you learn from analyzing those high-card hands? What are some of the basic rules you use when showing down high card hands (obviously there will be exceptions to your rules based on specific table conditions but just looking for what guidelines you use now)?

I have been playing very tight pre-flop at 3/6. Perhaps too tight. I was running under 10% entering pots away from calling a raise from the BB vs late opener type of play. I was tracking these stats after I read Mason Malmuths chapter on playing 15% of hands in Poker Essays 2. Using the PartyPoker calculation, I am consistently around 15% with a range of 12-21%. However, as I am sure you know, Party counts blinds in its calculations.

I feel very good about my pre-flop play, opening for raises when in position and limping if good multiway hand and limpers in front of me (middle pairs, suited connectors 98 or better).

My suspicion is that I am doing something wrong after the flop given how often I win small pots but lose large pots. I suspect this is being exacerbated by just a big bad luck downswing where I am just not making my flushes and I am paying off 2 pairs when I have TPTK.

I am currently trying to re-think my play on TPTK hands. How to bet for value on the river yet not get caught in reverse implied odds situations. An opponents check-raise on the river is one time I am laying down slightly more. In my experience, I have yet to run into a bluff check-raise on the river. If they were bluffing, they would just bet to avoid having it get checked through.

Net net, my showdown numbers are ugly right now. But I am getting a lot of money in consistently as favorite going to river. I have been giving 1 extra bet away too much when drawn out on and I am conscious of this now but 1 extra bet once in a while isn't the meat of my recent problems.

btw, the 2/4 game is very easy for me... its just the 3/6 game that owns me right now.

thanks for your comments...

[Kenrick]

[ QUOTE ]
I have been playing very tight pre-flop at 3/6. Perhaps too tight. I was running under 10% entering pots away from calling a raise from the BB vs late opener type of play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, someone who plays tighter than me is rare. Might just be on at times where most pots are being raised preflop and then what can ya do except start cold-calling or 3-betting if you feel like it. If most pots are being raised, I think you have to be fairly liberal in calling in the BB on steals, but not necessarily anywhere else.

It's hard to give stat help without stats. 3/6 can be tough. Some people say Party 15/30 is easier than 3/6. Your showing down high-card hands seems pretty high. Sounds more like what you'd do at a shorthanded game, and even then showing high-card Ace won't necessarily make you a big winner. Did I mention 3/6 can be tough?

[DonkeyKong]

If the pot is short-handed, I will basically always be the pre-flop raiser. In a situation vs 1 other, I will showdown an unimproved AK, AQ, AJ approximately 50% of the time. Is that too high? Again, if the pot is multiway, I will rarely showdown an unimproved AK/AQ/AJ. Never if its more than 3-way.

This play happens a lot. You get AJ/AQ in middle or late position, you raise and only the BB calls. The board comes rags. The question is what to do?

This could very well be a leak for me. When the flop or turn comes with an A K or Q, the opponent will generally fold so I win a small pot. If my opponent pairs and there is no A K Q on board, my opponent will call me down and I will lose a few extra big bets. I have thought a lot about this problem recently. I do raise unopened pots from late position with KJ/QJ and 88+ and KTs/K9s QTs JTs T9s 98s and a select few randomly pre-chosen bluff hands so I can some pots that come 9 or T high.

Net net, I find myself going long stretches without winning a big pot. I am sure everyone has this common problem but I am in a rough downswing so it feels like I am entering pots well, I am getting out of multiway pots if I don't hit the flop but I am either losing big pots when I do hit the flop (outdrawn) or losing medium size pots when I miss the flop.

in 2/4, opponents just give their money away. at 3/6, the play is tough. I am very disappointed that after a year I am having trouble beating 3/6. I wanted to get to the 5/10 game by now...

[Mike]

I wonder if you are overestimating the strength of your hands or underestimating the best hand in big pots, eg, many players to the river? If you are winning small pot and losing big pots this is a good place to look.

Also just a guess, but do you change your thinking when pots are small verses when pots are big? You can not play the same cards the same way against the two different fields.

[DonkeyKong]

<<I wonder if you are overestimating the strength of your hands or underestimating the best hand in big pots, eg, many players to the river?>>

Thanks for responding.

In multiway pots, I am definitely playing TPTK or drawing relative to pot odds. I did read SSH and know the concepts well. I reduce overcard 'outs' in multiway pots.

Most of the time in big multiway pots, you are forced to call down due to the size of the pot. Often I can see that the flush card hits the river or that the board pairs and I my flush might have been beaten but at that point, its often 1 more bet to call a 15-bet pot. I will almost never fold a TPTK hand for 1 more bet.

I think I am losing too much money on AK/AQ hands. These hands have not been profitable for me and are supposed to be quite +EV. I will read some more posts here and around this forum... Thx