Another QQ vs. James282 30/60

[DcifrThs]

i have QQ and open in middle position loosie calls on button james calls in bb.

FLop is A63 rainbow no flush draw.

james checks i bet loosie calls james calls.

turn is T and james comes right out and bets. i think for about 3 seconds and raise.

comments?

-Barron

[Schneids]

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comments?

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I'd say it's about 80% likely he's gonna 3-bet you.

I would have called down on the turn (no raise by me) and not like it.

[Barry]

Jeez, your guys game selection sucks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]...

And therein lies the problem. Flop check/calls followed by a turn bet is usually a sign of weakness by "typical" players. But you know that and he knows that and he knows that you know that, etc. ect....

So you can't be sure that he's got a smaller PP that you beat, a weak A that you might or might not be able to push him off of or a monster like AT or even better, like 66 and doesn't want it to get checked around and is hoping that you'll raise for a free showdown, just so he can 3 bet it. Compounding the problem is the loosie behind you that may also have you beat and won't fold an A, no matter what you do.

So it's 5.5BB when the action is on you. In the worst case, your effective odds are 6.5:2, if the loosie folds and at best 8.5:2 if he calls, but then you have to beat them both.

I dunno, do you think that you beat James 1/3 of the time and both of them 1/4 of the time? If so, why not put in your 2 bets now and be done with it. If the loosie is "call the flop with anything, then fold the turn" kind of loosie you might be OK, but if he's a "call to the river" kind of loosie, then James is value betting the best hand.

HU I'd guess I'd call him down, but with the loosie behind you, it becomes more complicated and I think that if folding is wrong, it's not wrong by very much.

If I had to guess, loosie calls 2 cold with some mediocre A and James 3-bets his set of 6's

[hockey1]

I like it. You don't have to be ahead to make this raise +EV. It has a very good shot at pushing out loosie's Ax and there's a pretty good chance you're ahead of James. Check behind on the river unimproved though (if James gives you that option).

[Barry]

A couple of other thoughts....

If James does indeed have a big hand, I like his line a lot and use it myself from time to time. You're going to autobet the flop. If he checkraises the flop or turn it allows you to get away from a weak hand. If you have a real hand when he bets the turn, he gets to put in 3 BB's.

If you have a marginal hand, you're somewhat likely to check the turn, but will give him a "curiosity" call down if he bets the turn and river.

Secondly, if this took place after the other QQ hand, from a meta-game perspective, I think that he's less likely to be making a move. He would/should think that you would be more likely to look him up this time.

[stoxtrader]

this would be a fold for me.

[Jeffage]

Fold. Loosie behind you won't fold an ace nad James is likely to have one as well (or a hand like a set looking for excessive action).

Jeff

[DcifrThs]

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Secondly, if this took place after the other QQ hand, from a meta-game perspective, I think that he's less likely to be making a move. He would/should think that you would be more likely to look him up this time.

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yup.

thank you barry. although it didn't happen immediately afterwards, that hand was clearly in both of our minds. so when he bet the turn i knew with a high degree of certainty that he did not have a pair under aces, or something like AJ/AQ/AK because he'd 3bet me pf given my opening position (MP). nor would he think im folding later on so he doesn't call the flop w/ TT (and he 3 bets pf).

so that leaves 33/66 or a weak suited ace. with 33 and 66 he'd checkraise me and get a bet out of the loosie because the loosie folds all non ace hands here with a high degree of likelihood and that bet is almost an inducement to raise.

and i would almost always raise my big aces here (AQ/AK). so he knows what this raise looks like from me. and he doesn't know my hand.

so when he bets on the turn, i know his hand *almost* certainly, and he doesn't know mine.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

i was gunna wait for james282 to chime in but he can respond anytime he wants.

so to recap: i raise QQ get called on button by loosie, james calls in bb. A63 no draws on flop i bet and am called by both.

T on turn james bets i raise.

i raise because NOW james will think almost every time that i have a big ace and will fold his A5s-A9s hands almost every time and the loosie will also fold a great deal too.

it took a beat of 1...2...3... to fully realize what was going on but after the 3 i raised and both folded.

james imed me something to the effect of "nh...nice raise....i had an oddly played hand"

i said "thank you, what'd ya have?" J:"odly played weak ace"

i said, "QQ [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. i finally got one right" he was quite shocked.

i didn't expect many people to think the raise was good but at the same time i still think i was correct to raise this.
-Barron

[Barry]

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james imed me something to the effect of "nh...nice raise....i had an oddly played hand"

i said "thank you, what'd ya have?" J:"odly played weak ace"


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I guess in this case, his turn bet was a sign of weakness. So I was thinking too much about what he was thinking [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]