Pokerstars Micro-Limit Hand Question [Weak Draws facing Bets]

[davelin]

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That's not a valid comparison. It features more opponents and it's based on going to showdown with all people in the pot.

Liming this low one gap suited connector is a marginal move at best, especially with just 2 limpers in front. It also does not take into account that sometimes you can lose big with these hands when facing a bigger straight of flush.

Playing 22 is a lot easier; just hit or fold. And it is easier to spot hands that could be beating you like a flush (and you will get outs for a full house when that happends).

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I disagree, 75s is a pretty easy hand to play post-flop IMO. You're obviously not playing it for the one-pair strength. Just like 22, you're pitching this hand on an unfavorable flop.

[bozlax]

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That's not a valid comparison. It features more opponents and it's based on going to showdown with all people in the pot.

Liming this low one gap suited connector is a marginal move at best, especially with just 2 limpers in front. It also does not take into account that sometimes you can lose big with these hands when facing a bigger straight of flush.

Playing 22 is a lot easier; just hit or fold. And it is easier to spot hands that could be beating you like a flush (and you will get outs for a full house when that happends).

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But you could flop 775! And, seriously, the "higher straight or flush" argument is killed by how well hidden your hand will be when you hit.

Oh, and read the referenced chart more carefully. It's broken down by number of players.

::Grunch::

Call. With the flush draw and the gutshot, you've got the odds even when the turn is capped. It's going to be close considering how low your flush cards are, but your pot odds are slighly less than 4 to 1, whereas the odds of hitting the flush or gutshot are less than 3 to 1.

Your implied odds should you hit should make up for any chance of being outflushed.

I don't think it's close.

Hall of shame, here I come!

[HouseCalls]

*grunch*
I look at the hand like this: you have 9 outs to the flush. The question then becomes what percentage of the time will you win if you make the flush. This can be complex to estimate and is why any action [ on a consistent basis ] is near impossible to define. For this hand I would say that no one is showing much strength on the flop which increases the possiblity of opponents being on draws. The board is NOT very coordinated (and is mostly low cards) on the flop which decreases the chance of people being on a draw. Importantly, in this case the flop is a rainbow which again decreases the chance that you are up against a higher flush draws. Then with the wild action on the turn you have to worry about slowplayed trips or someone who got really luck and made the wheel when the A hit. Also at the micro limits the chance of opponents playing any A is high so the A on the turn may mean that opponents with Ax stay in with top pair or Aces up. Against all these hands your flush is still good. Then you have to take all that and add it up and figure what are the chances that your flush will win if you hit it. The more experience you have the better your guesstimate will be. I am still relatively new at this (and will be interested what the older habds say her) but I would say you will win 90% of the time you hit your flush. With 9 outs x 90% this gives you 8.1 outs which makes your break even odds 4.7:1. When the action is on you there are 9 BB in the pot and you have to put in 3 to go (3:1) so you do not have odds to call. Even if you assume both SB and BB call as well you will be getting 12:3 (4:1) which is still not enough... Fold

Ok, I'll be the stupid guy in the thread.

Why am I coming up with better pot odds than everybody else? Is it because I'm assuming everybody will call the 3 bet? If they do, and we call 3 bets also, then we've got our 3 to their 12, or 4 to 1, right?

Now worst case scenario, everybody folds except the 3 better and us, so we're getting 9 to 3 which is 3 to 1.

So I guess the difference is, I'm assuming everybody calls, and everyone else is assuming that everybody folds.

Wouldn't it really be something in between, like 3.5 to 1? And if so, including the gutshot in our equation, why is this such an easy fold?

[bozlax]

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Wouldn't it really be something in between, like 3.5 to 1? And if so, including the gutshot in our equation, why is this such an easy fold?

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4, 3.5 or 3 to 1 still isn't enough, because your draws aren't that good. Yeah, 9 outs to the flush, 4 outs to the gutshot but you have to discount those (especially the flush) for the times when you hit and still lose. And both draws are pretty obvious, so if they hit you're not going to get action from hands you beat on the river, so you're not going to be able to make up the difference. Easy fold.

Ok, thanks.