NL 10/20 Bellagio Hand, continue with open-ended straight draw?

[B-Man]

NL ring game at Bellagio, 10-20 blinds. I have a little over 3,000 on the table, both of the other relevant players in this hand have me covered.

I am on the button. 2 players limp to me, I limp for 20 with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], both blinds call, 5 people see the flop ($100 in the pot).

Flop 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Small blind (who seemed to be a solid player) bets $200 into a pot of $100 (I put him on a king and assume the bet size is to drive out any draws). 2 players in front of me call $200 (one of them, the second caller, is a well-known celebrity in the poker world), I easily have the pot odds to draw to my open ender, so I call. $900 in the pot.

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]


Small blind bets $500. Celebrity CALLS. Hmmm. While this could have meant top-pair/bad kicker, I suspected the caller's hand was most likely hand a heart draw, which meant that I might only have 6 outs instead of 8. So while I could draw to the nuts getting 1900:500 pot odds, I could be putting myself in a position to have to make a very hard decision if one of my dirty outs came.

What's your move? Results will follow later.

[TheGrifter]

I'd be done with this hand on the turn. As you said, 2 of your outs are likely not clean and if they are you may be drawing to a chop. Also, it's doubtful anyone has a monster hand here, so you have to question how well your hand is going to pay off when you do get there.

[Frogger]

It depends upon your money situation after. If you lose that $3,000, would you mind leaving the game or do you have money to buy back in?

Is the game a great game that you want to stay in? If you, I'd say pick a shot later. Remember, say a +600 EV move isn't worth taking if it prevents you from playing further and making several other $800EV moves in the future.

[PokerFink]

I would probably fold. Here is my thinking:

I would only invest that $500 if I thought I could double up through the SB if I hit. I don't like paying a lot for draws unless they have huge implied odds.

If you think the SB has a hand like KK, and therefore would probably bet-out the river when you hit the nuts (that 7-9 is hard to see coming), and would be pot-committed when you moved in with the straight and pay you off, then the call on the turn makes sense. But if he is playing say KQ, and won't pay you off, then I don't make that call.

With 3 players you can't bluff the river, and as you said, you might only have six outs, and end up going bust if both draws hit. I like the laydown.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
It depends upon your money situation after. If you lose that $3,000, would you mind leaving the game or do you have money to buy back in?

[/ QUOTE ]

I had money to re-buy, and would likely have done so, as this was a pretty good game.

However, I would be very hesitant to put my whole stack in on the river without the nuts, which certainly was a major factor in my decision whether to call the turn.

[AtlBrvs4Life]

I don't see how you are getting the pot odds to call the flop bet with only 6 clean outs.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you are getting the pot odds to call the flop bet with only 6 clean outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't know on the flop whether I had 6 outs or 8, but I certainly wasn't laying down an open-ender getting 7:2 with 4-way action and deep stacks (edit: also remember my call closed the action).

[gomberg]

Hmmm... I probably fold this unless I can get about 7:1 implied odds - which is possible given the nature of the straight being a little harder to read. If you think the flush card isn't an out, you have no flush bluffing equity also.

You probably have about 6:44 chance (1:7.33) for the draw (taking 2 cards out of aggressor who has cards you don't need probably). So it's a matter of implied odds.

[B-Man]

I decided to fold, because I only had 6 outs to the nuts, and didn't want to be faced with calling a big bet if one of my dirty outs came. I felt this was a close decision, but that folding was the right move.

The river was the 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]!

The small blind checked, and the celebrity bet $2,000. I thought to myself, "Wow, what a decision I would have had!"

The small blind thought for a while, then finally called. The celebrity said, "I have a king." The small blind then turned over 68 for a flopped two-pair, so I would have taken down the pot. My read on the celebrity was wrong; if I knew he had top pair, then I definitely would have called the turn, but I felt he would have raised the flop or turn with top pair (or folded if he really didn't like his kicker). I was wrong...

I'm not at all sure the celebrity would have made that river bet if I was still in the hand (since he would have had to strongly suspect I was on a heart draw), but it would have been very interesting.

[turnipmonster]

you think he's going to chop!? I think there's a great chance his hand will be good if he hits his 6 outer. also his hand is well disguised which makes his chances of getting paid off even better.

he really only needs better than 6.5 to 1 to make the call profitable, and he's currently getting a little worse than 4 to 1 closing the action. he needs to make 1350 on the river to break even on his call, and I would say with two players that's very likely.

I think this is a situation where you have to judge how committed both players are to their hands on the turn. I have a hard time putting the guy in between on a flush draw, usually people won't just call all their chips getting bad odds with a flush draw. depends on the player.

the only situation you hate on the river is if a heart comes and makes you a straight and it goes check, bet and now you have to make the read. if it goes bet and raise you can obviously fold it.

--turnipmonster