+ EV 50$ Price - How long to get 20 1sts in 30+3

[Frogger]

I'm going on a quest.

It's to play as many SNGs at the 30+3 level at party poker until I get 20 1sts. To get people involved and keep myself motivated, I will offer a 50$ first price to the winner who guesses the CLOSEST number to the ammount of SNGs it takes for me to win 20 tournaments.

It's important to note that I place a LOT of 4th and 5ths and 1sts. Sometimes I'll bust out around 6th if I'm running card dead and get impatient (huge leak).

I'll give the 50$ price assuming my ROI is positive after the quest is done. Let the guessing (and bashing) begin.

My personal guess (doesn't count) is 100 tournaments - what's yours?

[BlackMamba]

My guess is 74, because I like the number [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[EdSchurr]

73. I like games.

[Anadrol 50]

101

[young nut]

I would guess 83

[Frogger]

played 3 so far...

2
3
9

Wtf.. No 1sts

[rkaufman]

Sounds like fun. I'll predict a hot streak, and say 50.

Woody

[bicyclekick]

137

[Redmen62]

111

[BonJoviJones]

I've scientifically chosen 133 (and 1/3rd, but we'll round it off [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])