Crying calls throwing away bets?

[cowboyzfan]

I know everyone prefers to see specific hand examples. But what I am talking about seems to vary little from hand to hand. I am sick of giving away money on the river after some calling station who has called my lead bet on the flop and turn comes alive and raises on the river after a scare card falls.

I know it is based on the pot size and the chances the villain is bluffing, but i am talking regular pots, say 6-8 bets, heads up on the end. With your average calling station. When you "know" he caught his flush or whatever, do you guys just throw in that last bet anyway?

I ask this because it seems to be a waste of the fact that we actually pay attention to the other guy's hand. Again, i am talking against unimaginitive players in less than large pots.

[moot]

Just a matter of pot odds for me.

Let's say he raises me on the end. And let's say it's 1 bet to me to win 8 in the pot. 1:8, so that's 1/9 or 11%. So I have to be more than 89% sure to make folding a profitable play. Usually I can't be that certain (especially with all the periodic river raises I see where the guy flips over random junk).

So I usually call.

[einbert]

It always depends on the size of the pot. If the pot is 20 BB and your top two pair (or even TPTK) is checkraised on the river, you should call. In small pots (<=8BB), folding to a checkraise on the river when a scare card falls is not an awful thing. I think it's worse to fold to a lead bet than to a checkraise. Players at these levels (.5/1, 1/2) are quick to bluff bet a scare card but most of them won't checkraise bluff you. I generally judge how much I can trust a player by their VPIP and PFR. If they have good numbers for those stats (~20 and ~7) I trust their bets quit e a bit, but if I'm up against someone who plays 70% of his hands and raises PF 15% of the time, I'm probably calling down with my top pair in a medium to large pot no matter what. You would be surprised how many crying calls of turn checkraises I have made that actually ended up being middle pair or top pair weak kicker. The other important factor is whether you are calling or overcalling. Be more willing to fold when other people have already called on the river (of course not too much more, especially when the caller's VPIP is high and/or his WTSD is very high).

Just evaluate the situation based on the exact pot size, then make your decision. If the pot is 9BB, and your lone opponent checkraises you on the river, are you 90% sure you're beaten? If so, fold. I will usually make the call here because I won't be so certain. If the pot is 4 BB, are you 80% sure you're beaten? Often you won't even be that sure. Just make the +EV play based on the pot size and the results will work out in the long run. I know it's frustrating to feel like you are throwing away bets, but in the long run you are really saving yourself a lot of money by making these crying calls.

[cowboyzfan]

thanks for the responses, they make sense. I must have had three or four of these hands in a short session where I had TPTK and was betting into a single passive calling station. When they raised my bet on the river I just "knew" my call was wasted. But i understand what you are saying, and there are those that will bluff raise.

[Arm187r]

So really we should be calling almost anything right? I think i read somewhere on here to paraphrase ~make the tough laydowns preflop and save the loose calls for the river.

Well my problem is for example what if you flop TP i.e, 10, 9, 8 -etc. and lets say its down to 2 or 3 players after the flop. What happens if you are bet into on the turn or river when an overcard comes to your top pair? And there are no likely straight or flush draws that hit. I assume its safe to fold on the turn? Whats the proper play on the river if an overcard comes, you don't have position so you check and you are bet into? Alot of times i don't have reads on people cuz i'm quite a newbie, and i don't know if the river hit them or they are betting because my checking may be a sign of weakness and they hope i fold. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[cowboyzfan]

[ QUOTE ]
Well my problem is for example what if you flop TP i.e, 10, 9, 8 -etc. and lets say its down to 2 or 3 players after the flop. What happens if you are bet into on the turn or river when an overcard comes to your top pair? And there are no likely straight or flush draws that hit. I assume its safe to fold on the turn? Whats the proper play on the river if an overcard comes, you don't have position so you check and you are bet into? Alot of times i don't have reads on people cuz i'm quite a newbie, and i don't know if the river hit them or they are betting because my checking may be a sign of weakness and they hope i fold. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously I don't have all the answers because I asked the original question. However, if you are in a multiway hand on the end with a marginal made hand, it is easier to lay your hand down to a raise because it is more likely you are beat and you risk a reraise behind you. Of course if your call finishes the action, it is more just a pot odds thing. As others have said, pot odds, opponent aggresiveness, and many other factors come into play.

My complaint was that it seems even when I do have a good read on someone, and pretty much "know" they made their hand on the river, I still call. I understand there is a percentage issue, but I think the more passive the opponent, the percentage that they are bluffing you goes way way down.

I did think about this a bit though and see another problem with folding to a river raise from someone who was calling you down. Even if you "correctly fold", the opponent might now try to bluff you when a scare card comes and it did not help him. Of course, then we are getting back to the idea of strong opponents.

[cowboyzfan]

[ QUOTE ]
Alot of times i don't have reads on people cuz i'm quite a newbie, and i don't know if the river hit them or they are betting because my checking may be a sign of weakness and they hope i fold. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Alot of times I don't know either [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] At least the check keeps you from getting raised (in a heads up situation). One thing that could work is if you check raised the player who always bets after your check, it should make him more likely to check you through when you want it.

[Goon2]

I think the preceeding advice is sound. There are times when I have laid down good hands when I was almost sure I was beaten, but that decision was based on the board and the PT stats of the opponent. Those stats can catapult you from 80% certainty of a loss to 95% certainty, which usually makes all the difference.

There have been times I "knew" I was beaten and folded, only to see a bad player (per PT) show second pair, or AK unimproved. That is a TERRIBLE mistake. Those reminders give me the heart to calling down for one bet when the pot is huge and depending on the player. It paid off the other night when I dragged a 13 or 14 BB pot with KTs on an K92A4 board. Opp was "representing" the A, but I called for one bet in the big pot. Opp had K8.