Zen and the Art of Poker

I was reading "Zen and the Art of Poker" by Larry W. Phillips today, and I remembered reading something about taking in to consideration of your recent luck (good or bad) in previous hands in order to make a better educated decision in your current hand. I'm just curious what everyone has to say about this.

The only reason you should do that is to consider how your opponents see you currently. IF they fear you are ona rush you should seize that oppurtunity and win some more pots.

Other than that each hand is an individual occurrence.

[Xhad]

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something about taking in to consideration of your recent luck (good or bad) in previous hands in order to make a better educated decision in your current hand.

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This is the major failing of that book (yes I have read it). Luck is not real.

[DcifrThs]

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something about taking in to consideration of your recent luck (good or bad) in previous hands in order to make a better educated decision in your current hand.

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This is the major failing of that book (yes I have read it). Luck is not real.

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perception of luck is real.

when you are running well, your opponents take fewer shots at you which allows you to bet hands that might normally get raised if opponent didn't adjust to your perceived luck. therefore you get more value where you wouldn't be able to before.

it certainly has other uses but that for one is true.
Barron

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Luck is not real.

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In cold, hard terms I agree. The odds never change. A good hand/bet is always the same.

But, like DeciphrThs said, there are those who look at your heater/rush and think, "Man, he's hot right now," and change their play accordingly. Maybe you've just not noticed it.

I watched a Doyle B. interview and he said pretty much the same thing. IIRC, that remark's been discussed in another thread. He said when he's on a run of good cards he'll sometimes play cards he wouldn't normally because of the opponent's concern for his "luck." (paraphrase)

Give it a try. It may work for you. Or not.

[AaronBrown]

You have to be careful with the "bet marginal hands when you've been winning recently" argument.

It's true that if you show strong cards at showdown, other players will tend to think you are tighter and give your bets more respect; especially patterns similar to the one you used in the big winning hand.

But there are other ways to win. Maybe you showed weak cards at showdown, but the other player was weaker. Maybe everyone else folded. These types of wins will tend to make other players show less respect for your betting; meaning you should tighten up and play stronger hands.

This just scratches the surface of poker strategy, there are of course many other considerations for betting than whether or not you've won recently.

Aaron,
Why is it that I feel wiser after reading your posts. I've not read the book, is he talking about playing rushes much the way Brunson does in Super System?
I agree with you. I will also play my rushes, but within reason. It is possible to go overboard and shoot yourself in the foot. It can, in the right situations, prove beneficial to take advantage of others' perception of you. It is a game of situations.

"This just scratches the surface of poker strategy, there are of course many other considerations for betting than whether or not you've won recently."
Care to elaborate, oh wise one?

[AlanBostick]

The cards don't have memory. But your opponents (and you) do.

[AaronBrown]

Much as I hate to discourage people saying nice things about me, I think the reason you feel wiser after reading my posts is you were wise all along. I'm saying pretty simple stuff, maybe it helps you organize your deeper thoughts.

While the book is not entirely precise, it seems to be saying luck runs in cycles so if you've had good luck recently you should count on it in the future; and if you've had bad luck recently you should quit the game or get cautious. I don't believe this. Whenever people measure things carefully, there's no evidence for memory in cards or dice, and the idea contradicts popular notions of causality. That's not saying it's impossible, but if you believe in lucky streaks it has to be a matter of faith, because there's no evidence for them, and they would be difficult to explain.

Brunson says something quite different. He says players will react to your recent success or lack of success, so you should factor this in to your decisions. This is just good poker. If you've shown some strong hands recently, people are more likely to fold to your raises. That makes it more attractive to slowplay your best hands, bluff more and bet more stongly on marginal hands. On the other hand, you might fold a good drawing hand preflop, because you don't expect to get full value if you hit.

I can only begin to list the factors you consider when deciding how to bet. Obviously the strength of your hand and its potential for improvement, plus your reads of other players' hands based on their actions, tendencies and tells. You also consider their moods, plus the mood of the table. Heavy winners and losers tend to call a lot, players near even are more likely to fold and raise. It's common for players to try to win the last big hand, so if you remember what happened then you can predict actions on this hand. On top of all these things, you're thinking about how your actions this hand will set you up in future hands.

As much as I hate to disagree with you Aaron, especially since I know you have the capacity to hurt me on the green felt battleground, I must. You are a wise man and are very effective at articulating important concepts. I stand by my statement, I am always better off having read your posts.
I've never read the Zen book, so, I can only go by what you say. You're right, there is no such thing as memory as far as the cards are concerned. That is a bit strange.
I am of the Brunson philosophy of taking advantage of your opponents' perception of you. However, you can only go so far with it. After a while somebody is going to pick up a hand and fight back. So, one must keep this in mind and not go too far with it.