Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Other Poker > Stud

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-17-2005, 05:28 PM
mscags mscags is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Between Two Hot Twins
Posts: 713
Default Interesting Stud 8/B Theory Question

I see this type of situation come up a lot with me and m default play used to be to just call, but lately I'm not so sure.

Say on sixth street the boards look like this.

Seat 1: Xx Xx 3s 9s Ks Kd
Hero: 6s Ah 5d Js 4h Tc
Seat 4: Xx Xx Jsc Qs Qh Ac

Assuming that I am the only one that can hit a low, what are the odds needed for me to make a call here. Assume my chance for high is slim to none.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 10-17-2005, 08:08 PM
stickman stickman is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 52
Default Re: Interesting Stud 8/B Theory Question

How many low cards remain? What is the bet to you? How have the highs been betting? How big is the pot?There are many questions to ask.
Personally, you should fold this hand. You are drawing to 1/2 a pot and that just isnt a good play. Best case scenario you hit an ACE and pray it SCOOPS!
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 10-17-2005, 08:12 PM
preiserone preiserone is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Milwaukee Wisconsin
Posts: 23
Default Re: Interesting Stud 8/B Theory Question

that is one classy pic you've got
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 10-17-2005, 08:20 PM
stickman stickman is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 52
Default Re: Interesting Stud 8/B Theory Question

Thanx NOOB!
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 10-17-2005, 08:20 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Interesting Stud 8/B Theory Question

Fold fourth.

But to answer seriously, if you started with 6A54 then bricked twice, you are looking to catch a 2, 3, 7 or 8. You have 12 outs, but seat 1 has one of your outs. Of 52 cards in the deck, 14 are known, so your 11 outs are in the remaining 38. So it's 27:11 = 2.5:1. Since you are only playing for half the pot you need to be getting about 5:1 I think.

Someone feel free to correct me, because I did it in my head, and I might be wrong anyway.

Simple answer: You're probably getting the right odds, so call.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 10-17-2005, 09:55 PM
DeadMoneyOC DeadMoneyOC is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: My pool
Posts: 237
Default Re: Interesting Stud 8/B Theory Question

[ QUOTE ]
How many low cards remain? What is the bet to you? How have the highs been betting? How big is the pot?There are many questions to ask.


[/ QUOTE ]

That is the first thing I thought. There are a lot of variables you left out in the OP. Sometimes you should fold, sometimes you should call. It depends.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 10-17-2005, 10:16 PM
mscags mscags is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Between Two Hot Twins
Posts: 713
Default Re: Interesting Stud 8/B Theory Question

assume that there is about 7 BB in the pot, it is one BB for you to call, there were two other dead low cards out on third and nothing else besides what you've seen. The queens bet out when they paired on fifth and then the kings bet out when he paired on sixth. What's your play?
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 10-17-2005, 10:41 PM
DeadMoneyOC DeadMoneyOC is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: My pool
Posts: 237
Default Re: Interesting Stud 8/B Theory Question

I dont know the math, but if you are less than 3.5-1 dog to make your low than it would be correct call, maybe? You also could factor in some implied odds because [censored] might hit the fan on the river if you make your low and you starting jamming with one of them. I think bigredlemon is our math guy...He can probably give you a much better answer to this question that I can.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 10-18-2005, 11:57 AM
arcticfox arcticfox is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Surrey, UK
Posts: 93
Default Re: Interesting Stud 8/B Theory Question

[ QUOTE ]
But to answer seriously, if you started with 6A54 then bricked twice, you are looking to catch a 2, 3, 7 or 8. You have 12 outs, but seat 1 has one of your outs. Of 52 cards in the deck, 14 are known, so your 11 outs are in the remaining 38. So it's 27:11 = 2.5:1. Since you are only playing for half the pot you need to be getting about 5:1 I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats some bad maths in your head! You have 15 outs (4x4 less the one card already out). Secondly you need to factor in the fact that you are betting once to win 1.5 bets on top of what the pot is already laying you, assuming both highs will call a river. So you basically need around 3:1 pot odds to make this call correct assuming you only get one call on the river, and less assuming you get both highs to call the river when you hit.

So if the pot is 7BB with you closing the action on 6th, your EV of folding is obviously 0.

Your EV of calling is -1BB when you call and don't hit 23/38 times = -0.61 BBs

Your EV of calling and hitting with 7 BBs in the pot (8 BBs including your bet and assuming you only get one call on the river) is 15/38*3.5=1.38 BBs.

Meaning making this call has an EV of 0.77 BBs in your favour, plus the chance you get 2 high calls on the river where you make your low which increases your EV significantly. (these calculations obviously ignore rake)

You basically break even on this where there are 2 BBs in the pot prior to your bet, suggesting that you should be usually chasing lows where you are guaranteed a lock on the low if you hit unless the pot is tiny. In reality it is rare that you have a lock on the low you are drawing to on 6th which makes folding on 6th correct in most other circumstances unless the pot is big.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 10-18-2005, 12:06 PM
arcticfox arcticfox is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Surrey, UK
Posts: 93
Default Re: Interesting Stud 8/B Theory Question

[ QUOTE ]
assume that there is about 7 BB in the pot, it is one BB for you to call, there were two other dead low cards out on third and nothing else besides what you've seen. The queens bet out when they paired on fifth and then the kings bet out when he paired on sixth. What's your play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you closing the action on 6th? If so its an insta-call with 7 BBs in the pot. If you are not closing and the queens are to act behind you then its closer if you fear it gets capped on 6th but I'd still call and hope the queens call behind. You are now 36% to make a low on 7th with 2 more dead low cards (13/36) so if you are closing the action the pot only needs to be 3.5 BB before you call to make this EV neutral, with 7 BBs before you call this is definitely profitable.

Edit: if you are not closing the action then its a lot closer as you have only got 18% pot equity and are putting in 1/3 of the money in a capped pot on 6th. So it depends how many times the queen reraises and also how many times the kings reraise (where you have to fold as you no longer have the odds) and how many times the queens just call behind you or fold.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:11 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.