A tough spot w a big pretty flop

[cwl]

i would push and wouldnt really give it a second thought. your hand is pretty good across the entire range of made hands, semi-bluffs, bluffs that an opponent can have here. granted, your opponent will have you beat a reasonable amount of the time but you have some outs when he does and i think he will have something else enough to make it worth playing. i dont like calling and planning to fold the turn at all cause a big part of the value of your hand is that its sometimes best. if you call you put yourself in a spot where its just much to easy to make a wrong decision later on. im struggling a bit to come up with a better justification but i think what it comes down to is that your really only in bad shape against a pretty narrow range of hands and my experience is that most peoples range of hands isnt that narrow.

[turnipmonster]

on the flop, there's 450 in the middle and hero has to call 225 more. villian has 615 left, meaning we're getting 1065:225 or 4.7:1. hero has 12 outs to the nuts so on the surface it looks like call flop/folding the turn should be ok.

to me, all this says is that you cannot fold unless you are very sure villian will not pay off, it's either call or raise. you are 1.5:1 against a set and around 1.75:1 against the straight. factor in the times he is losing (9T,AKo) and pushing (risking 840 to win 950) can't be that big a mistake.

another thing to consider is he knows you are unlikely to have QJ here but he could very well have it. against most 2+2ers he has a lot of folding equity in this spot over your possible range of hands. so I wouldn't rule out a bluff/semibluff.

--turnipmonster

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
i would push and wouldnt really give it a second thought. your hand is pretty good across the entire range of made hands, semi-bluffs, bluffs that an opponent can have here. granted, your opponent will have you beat a reasonable amount of the time but you have some outs when he does and i think he will have something else enough to make it worth playing. i dont like calling and planning to fold the turn at all cause a big part of the value of your hand is that its sometimes best. if you call you put yourself in a spot where its just much to easy to make a wrong decision later on. im struggling a bit to come up with a better justification but i think what it comes down to is that your really only in bad shape against a pretty narrow range of hands and my experience is that most peoples range of hands isnt that narrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with every word of this post.

[thatpfunk]

[ QUOTE ]
on the flop, there's 450 in the middle and hero has to call 225 more. villian has 615 left, meaning we're getting 1065:225 or 4.7:1. hero has 12 outs to the nuts so on the surface it looks like call flop/folding the turn should be ok.

to me, all this says is that you cannot fold unless you are very sure villian will not pay off, it's either call or raise. you are 1.5:1 against a set and around 1.75:1 against the straight. factor in the times he is losing (9T,AKo) and pushing (risking 840 to win 950) can't be that big a mistake.

another thing to consider is he knows you are unlikely to have QJ here but he could very well have it. against most 2+2ers he has a lot of folding equity in this spot over your possible range of hands. so I wouldn't rule out a bluff/semibluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know your stuff. Thank you.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
hero has 12 outs to the nuts

[/ QUOTE ]

i have 12-14 outs to beat two pair, but only 9 outs to the nuts.

so the math does come a little closer.

[Paluka]

How often do people think we are ahead on the flop? The answer certainly isn't zero.

[Yeti]

Personally I'd imagine you are ahead about 30-35% of the time.

[turnipmonster]

sorry my mistake. I counted a gutshot for unknown reasons. probably not too far off if aces and kings are partial outs though.

[Hans Gruber]

I'm in favor of calling the flop here, simply because I don't believe there is any fold equity in an all-in. The only way he's folding with this much money already in the pot is if he is bluffing.

There's a chance the guy has a set, in which case you probably have the implied odds to draw to your flush. However, in response to the posts above about waiting for an ace, an ace could be the worst possible card for you. If he has a set, and you hit your trips aces on the turn, you're meat.

I call, and muck the turn if I miss my flush.

[Hans Gruber]

Correction: I thought the flop brought an ace. Disregard my comment about the trips aces.