AK in a tough spot

[bozlax]

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Do you guys really think AKs makes up the difference between raise and fold here?

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I do, simply because it gives you one more way to win.

[Pedigree]

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I completely agree with your thought process, Boz, it's what I was thinking when you posted your read on the 3bettor. He just doesn't seem the type to isolate.

One discussion point, you mention, as do others that AKs would seem an easy cap. I have generally agreed, but in reviewing my last 5,000 hands or so, I'm a bigger winner with AKo than I am with AKs. Small sample, and could easily just be variance. But I've wondered a bit whether or not I have been overvaluing the suitedness of the hand; pushing a bit harder than I should since it is soooted. Do you guys really think AKs makes up the difference between raise and fold here? Are there any numbers to support that? I'm just interested in your arguments.

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I also have AKo as a bigger winner than AKs. Over a 4000 hand sample. So is we combine our samples we've got 9000 hands saying AKo is better! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you guys really think AKs makes up the difference between raise and fold here?

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I do, simply because it gives you one more way to win.

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Heads-up, according to PokerStove, you go from just under 50% to just over 53% against AA-QQ/AK/AKs/AQ/AQs.

Add in the 2nd Villan with a random hand, and AKs is 38 to 36 over the 3-bettor, with a random hand taking 25. AKo loses 2 points to the 3-bettor and 1 to the random, 35-38-26.

[imported_The Vibesman]

Wow. It does just put it over the top, doesn't it?

Thanks for running that, Boz, I don't have access to Pokerstove at work. That's really what I was looking for.

[MN_Mime]

*grunch*

MP2 is tight and passive, then.

What's UTG's VPIP? Has he been active and ready to tick off his stack or has he been selective and found a hand that he's ready to get his money in on?

In case 1, my first reaction is that MP2 can make make this power play with any reasonable opening hand. I'm inclined to cap this and possibly just isolate the possibly light isolating player. No new information can be gained by cold-calling, since UTG will just cap to tick off his stack or MP2 will cap just to make sure UTG is pot-committed and all-in.

In case 2, you have to assume that MP2 is going to be selective as well. MP2 is quite likely to have a hand that dominates yours. I'm not sure I've ever released big slick preflop in micro-limits, so I probably call to keep UTG in get better pot odds. In this case, pre-flop caps will tell me more about the quality of hands.