Blackjack vs Poker

[lwlee]

Which one has the better profit potential with least amount of effort?

A friend of mine plays $25 min BJ at Borgata, six deck shoe, and routinely takes home $1000 or more a weekend. Of course, he card counts.

I play the $3-5 NL game at Borgata, my usual take home might be double my buy-in, about $300-400 for the weekend.

I feel that more or less these 2 games are at the same level, $25 min BJ is lowest you can play on a weeknight or weekend. $3-5 NL is a moderate NL game at the Borgata.

There are a number of advantages with BJ card counting,
- playing against the house with set rules, you only need to play the odds, no deception involved like bluffing in poker. Alright, you need to do a little of "bluffing" like blowing off some money so they don't label you a counter but that's not as difficult as calling an all-in bluff.

- my friend got his black Borgata card after like 10 weekend sessions, perhaps a total of 80 hours. You need 1000 hours of playing poker before you'll get the card.

Been reading Knockout Blackjack, doesn't seem particularly difficult to master. In fact my friend doesn't even take card counting seriously, he picked it up from another friend and his system is not rigorous at all. Still he beats the game fairly well.

[SheetWise]

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Alright, you need to do a little of "bluffing" like blowing off some money so they don't label you a counter but that's not as difficult as calling an all-in bluff.


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Define difficult.

[lwlee]

What? You've never been in a situation with bottom set, the board shows a 4 flush on the river. Opponent goes all-in. Compound the fact that you've built up your stack all night to a respective size, one wrong move and good bye hard work.

If that's too easy, how about 3 flush on the river.

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Define difficult.

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[charlie_t_jr]

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In fact my friend doesn't even take card counting seriously, he picked it up from another friend and his system is not rigorous at all. Still he beats the game fairly well.

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If this is true, in respect to BR management, knowing the index plays, etc...then he's been getting extremely lucky and will soon go broke.

Generally speaking, BJ takes a bigger BR, and you'll experience much wilder variance...hold on!

[lwlee]

I've talked to him about this. It's now been about 20-25 sessions where he's had about 20+ winning session. His biggest win has far outstripped his worst loss. After a point, it's no longer luck. My friend appears to have good innate ability at BJ. Looks like he started off lucky and used his early winnings to maintain a good pace.

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If this is true, in respect to BR management, knowing the index plays, etc...then he's been getting extremely lucky and will soon go broke.

Generally speaking, BJ takes a bigger BR, and you'll experience much wilder variance...hold on!

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[SheetWise]

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After a point, it's no longer luck. My friend appears to have good innate ability at BJ.

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Cannot happen.

[charlie_t_jr]

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My friend appears to have good innate ability at BJ

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While it is true a BJ player must have the "smarts", there really is no "innate" ability that makes one BJ player better than another.

BJ is purely a mathematical game. In poker you play higher limits by getting better. In BJ, what separates a red player and a black player isn't necessarily skill, but BR.

I've got a program at home called BJ Risk Mngr. When I get home I can plug in some #'s to give you an idea of hourly expectation.

[lwlee]

The innate ability I'm referring to is mathematical skills, like memory and the ability to quickly calculate the odds.

But you're right, once you're talking about the top 5-10% players, it's no longer a matter of keeping track of the cards.

Though a player like Stu Ungar was such a great counter, he could count 8 deck shoe, in his case he could tell you the suit and rank of the last card. That type of effortless ability has to translate into a big advantage versus someone who needs to really concentrate to keep track of the count.

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While it is true a BJ player must have the "smarts", there really is no "innate" ability that makes one BJ player better than another.

BJ is purely a mathematical game. In poker you play higher limits by getting better. In BJ, what separates a red player and a black player isn't necessarily skill, but BR.

I've got a program at home called BJ Risk Mngr. When I get home I can plug in some #'s to give you an idea of hourly expectation.

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Yeah, but there is no end play in BJ anymore so who cares if you can count? Poker is way better. I rather bet on greyhound racing than play BJ anymore.

[playersare]

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A friend of mine plays $25 min BJ at Borgata, six deck shoe, and routinely takes home $1000 or more a weekend. Of course, he card counts.

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this figure doesn't sound realistic nor sustainable. a KO 1-8 spread on a good 6-deck game (75% pen) has an expectation of about +0.63%. assuming 60 hands dealt per hour with a minimum bet of $25, the average earnings is around $10/hr. so in the long run, I'd expect him to earn no more than the same or slightly less than you do playing $3/5NL, and with a LOT more volatility.

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my friend got his black Borgata card after like 10 weekend sessions, perhaps a total of 80 hours. You need 1000 hours of playing poker before you'll get the card.

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this I can believe since a card counter's average bet is about 2x the flat minimum, and comps are generally 20% of that. so if the floorperson was putting him down at $50 or more, then $10+/hr in comp sounds about right.

not that there's a gigantic value about getting Borgata Black, but there are ways to get the upgrade for considerably less bankroll risk or time than either blackjack or poker. for example, there was a recent opportunity for players to get upgraded to Total Rewards Diamond tier at Harrah's or Showboat for a relatively low wagering requirement, and with a 5x comp rate which made it virtually breakeven with the HA. With just 4-5 hours of action and theoretical loss of below $200 (not even including bounceback cash when I return), I am now a VIP at the same level as a slot machine player who has theoretically lost as much as $4000. best of all, I can take the Diamond card to Borgata this weekend and get upgraded to Black on the spot for an entire year.