And I put him on 24offsuit too!

[squeek12]

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Bayes' theorem dude:

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this is possibly a concept that is even more misapplied than WA/WB... bayes thoerem is even less relevant to this hand than WA/WB concept.
gl, youll need it.

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Thanks for the encouragement jackass, I'm doing just fine without perfect knowledge of all of these abstract theories and BS. So I might have misplayed a hand, I'm sure it's never happened to you. My winrate over a significant sample is about 2BB/100, so I guess I'm doing okay. The only reason I even played this hand is b/c my VPIP is only about 14.5 and I've been looking for spots to increase it a little.

So what if you think you might be behind on the turn. Theres a great chance you are ahead and you have players in between to make up for when you arent. I cap the turn given the chance.

When pots are large and multiway, generally you should get agressive and try to win it instead of watching it slip by when a flop-peeler like the sb finds a gutshot on the turn and doesnt know about partial outs.

To the SB:

Personally, I wouldnt even complete this preflop, but depending on how bad your opponents are and how likely they will pay you off, this can be OK.

On the flop: I know you like to see the turn card, but two other players seem to have really good hands. Also, when players are raising back and forth with others between them on the flop, it often represents a flush draw or trips in this case, meaning that your runner-runner outs are tainted.

On the turn:
Some players like to semi bluff raise their gutshots on paired boards. However, given the substantial action on the flop, I like that you choose not to semi bluff raise.

On the river:
While you hit your miracle donk-hand, I still wouldnt bet out. Since the mp bet out last hand, you can safely c/r the field. However, the way you played it, I would have probably 3bet the river, since your opponents will have trouble reading your hand and be completely obsessed with their pitiful trips