JTo flops top pair... yipee!

rgb · #1 12-18-2005, 12:33 PM

MP2 (38/8.0/1.3).

UTG+2 (60/0/0.58), MP3 (60/0/0.4) are separated at birth loose passives.

These stats are over about 60 hands and representative of observed play.

I have been running real bad this session -- haven't won a single hand in the 60 played.

I hated this hand from the point that UTG+2 bet the flop.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (11 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero ???

Loose passive donks the river. I have 2nd pair with a mediocre kicker. There are two yet to act including the LP flop better who may have me outkicked anyway.

I really want to fold -- can I?

Comments on the other streets welcome too...

friends · #2 12-18-2005, 01:01 PM

UTG+2, MP2 and MP3 calls to river are a bit worriyng having only middle pair, but flop raise is ok (we must provide protection or fold) and turn bet is ok too (all players showed weekness). Despite 1:11 I would fold to MP3 bet: he is passive and bets on you after you has showed agression + there are still 2 players in the hand.

masse75 · #3 12-18-2005, 01:59 PM

I like the flop raise...limping along encourages donks to stay in. They do it anyway, so you might as well get some equity out of it.

The wake-up bet on the river frightens me. Passive, Passive...bet? Most likely beaten here, maybe he was chasing the gutshot (it's not OE, because only way that would happen is if he held J9 and then he hit his str8 on the turn).

at 11:1, if you think UTG2 and MP2 might overcall, I'd call. If you think there's any tendency to raise, fold it. I do think you're better than 10% to win.

#4 12-18-2005, 02:02 PM

Id just call. If I thought MP3 were rational Id probably fold this one. WIth those stats I could not bring myself to fold.

nomadtla · #5 12-18-2005, 02:35 PM

Here are my thoughts. Whether or not their good I'll let others decide.

I like the flop raise to protect our vulnerable TP.

On the turn is where I had these thoughts.
We gained outs if that turn put us behind, loose passives love to give free cards (they all checked to you). My hand is marginally strong if it's ahead and there are a lot of rivers I don't want to see against 4 opponents (one of which, the J, makes my hand stronger). Loose passives are gonna call with anything that has any of those outs (and are not folding a better hand) so betting doesn't protect me. I wanna control the size of this pot so I can make a better decision on the river then my opponents. If we check the turn we gain more then betting, by giving us the oportunity to outplay our opponents on the river.

If we check behind on the turn.
Then if we miss on the river, like we did here and MP3 still bets then it's folding to a 1:8 which I like better then folding to a 1:12.
But if we improve with a 9 or T they will usually pay off anyways.

I don't raise this flop with the intention of trying to get a free card but given the board texture and the turn esspescially I think I change my mind to wanting to take the free card and control the pot size so I can outplay the river.

That's just my opinon though.

rgb · #6 12-19-2005, 12:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Here are my thoughts. Whether or not their good I'll let others decide.

I like the flop raise to protect our vulnerable TP.

On the turn is where I had these thoughts.
We gained outs if that turn put us behind, loose passives love to give free cards (they all checked to you). My hand is marginally strong if it's ahead and there are a lot of rivers I don't want to see against 4 opponents (one of which, the J, makes my hand stronger). Loose passives are gonna call with anything that has any of those outs (and are not folding a better hand) so betting doesn't protect me. I wanna control the size of this pot so I can make a better decision on the river then my opponents. If we check the turn we gain more then betting, by giving us the oportunity to outplay our opponents on the river.

If we check behind on the turn.
Then if we miss on the river, like we did here and MP3 still bets then it's folding to a 1:8 which I like better then folding to a 1:12.
But if we improve with a 9 or T they will usually pay off anyways.

I don't raise this flop with the intention of trying to get a free card but given the board texture and the turn esspescially I think I change my mind to wanting to take the free card and control the pot size so I can outplay the river.

That's just my opinon though.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I posted the hand, I didn't think the turn bet was questionable. I see where you're coming from but I don't really agree with your turn check idea here.

A Q is not so worrying on the turn as an A or K so I still think I have a good chance of being ahead. ie, I think my equity is >>25% and they'll all call so I bet for value.

Another point: if I check the turn it may induce one of my opponents to bet their K8o, or whatever, on the river so I think I'd have to call.

nomadtla · #7 12-19-2005, 12:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Another point: if I check the turn it may induce one of my opponents to bet their K8o, or whatever, on the river so I think I'd have to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't dissagree with this. A turn check still saves you a bet when behind. I think I'd still rather call a river bet which would be more likely to be weak because of our turn check. Then bet the turn and be put in a tough situation with a bigger pot on the river.

My other defense of my line is since we gained a few outs with that Q a c/r on this turn would suck major.