Blackjack vs Poker

[lwlee]

I had been trying to find out what a good hourly BJ rate was. My friend appears to be doing $80-100 per hour. It is widely divergent from your numbers. But I believe he steps it up after a while. 8x = $200. He goes beyond this, top bet could be $500, I'll have to ask him. His system is not optimized, which is why I believe that the floor hasn't tagged him as a counter, just lucky.

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this figure doesn't sound realistic nor sustainable. a KO 1-8 spread on a good 6-deck game (75% pen) has an expectation of about +0.63%. assuming 60 hands dealt per hour with a minimum bet of $25, the average earnings is around $10/hr. so in the long run, I'd expect him to earn no more than the same or slightly less than you do playing $3/5NL, and with a LOT more volatility.

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He gets lots of perks with the card. 2-3 free nights in a room. He's been offered free show tickets. Life is good when you're beating the house and they want you back!

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this I can believe since a card counter's average bet is about 2x the flat minimum, and comps are generally 20% of that. so if the floorperson was putting him down at $50 or more, then $10+/hr in comp sounds about right.

not that there's a gigantic value about getting Borgata Black, but there are ways to get the upgrade for considerably less bankroll risk or time than either blackjack or poker. for example, there was a recent opportunity for players to get upgraded to Total Rewards Diamond tier at Harrah's or Showboat for a relatively low wagering requirement, and with a 5x comp rate which made it virtually breakeven with the HA. With just 4-5 hours of action and theoretical loss of below $200 (not even including bounceback cash when I return), I am now a VIP at the same level as a slot machine player who has theoretically lost as much as $4000. best of all, I can take the Diamond card to Borgata this weekend and get upgraded to Black on the spot for an entire year.

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[playersare]

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I had been trying to find out what a good hourly BJ rate was. My friend appears to be doing $80-100 per hour. It is widely divergent from your numbers. But I believe he steps it up after a while. 8x = $200. He goes beyond this, top bet could be $500, I'll have to ask him. His system is not optimized, which is why I believe that the floor hasn't tagged him as a counter, just lucky.

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$100/hr at a $25 table is an expectation of over 6%. that is simply impossible to maintain in the long term. I also don't buy that your friend openly gets away with a 1-20 spread. while it's true that you can't legally get barred from playing blackjack in AC, any significant black action is going to tagged as "checks play" even at the Borg, and it is next to impossible to bet $500 in a single hand without both the pitboss and surveillance watching that player for the rest of the night. any combination of early shuffles or mediocre cuts will destroy his supposed advantage over the house. you might consider posting these stats to the more experienced players at www.bj21.com and see what they say.

and no offense to your friend's credibility, but if he's upstairs playing BJ while you're downstairs all night at the poker tables, how can you truly verify each other's results?

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He gets lots of perks with the card. 2-3 free nights in a room. He's been offered free show tickets. Life is good when you're beating the house and they want you back!

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um, any old lady who plays quarter slots can get free rooms and show tickets. these cost the casino next to nothing to give to the player. free liquor and limo rides, then we'll investigate further.

this last statement you made shows how green you guys are about the casino business. congrats on your short-term luck, but don't try preaching to others about some new "system" you friend has created, when you don't have any tangible data to back it up.

[lwlee]

Ouch, belligerent are we. As a poker player I don't enjoy any of these "easy" perks you so readily get. A free room for 2 to 3 nights is a real perk. Casino generally only give out discounted room rates to most players.

Geez, you make it sound like I'm trying to hawk a "system". My friend does well at the BJ tables and I want to see if others do it too. If they do, I'll switch from poker. Don't blast someone just because they're asking for more information.

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um, any old lady who plays quarter slots can get free rooms
and show tickets. these cost the casino next to nothing to give to the player. free liquor and limo rides, then we'll investigate further.

this last statement you made shows how green you guys are about the casino business. congrats on your short-term luck, but don't try preaching to others about some new "system" you friend has created, when you don't have any tangible data to back it up.

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[lwlee]

Spoke with my friend. If you take his biggest win, a weekend session that netted about $8-10k (it was a lights out session). Then his hourly win rate comes out to be $80-100. But exclude that win, the $1000 per weekend or $50 per hour seems to be more achievable and his norm.

$10 per hour seems pretty pathetic. Is this considered the expected win rate for a competent counter playing $25 BJ with the 1-8/10 spread at the Borgata. Getting conflicting info.

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My friend appears to be doing $80-100 per hour.

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[charlie_t_jr]

General assumptions...sorry if you gave excact specifics, I didn't go back and re-read the thread.

6 deck shoe, 5 decks dealt(very generous penetration).
$25 unit spread 25 - 300 (1-12 spread)
using Hi/Lo with the Illustrious 18 indices

Winrate/100 hands = $36.75. If you only get 60 per hour thats $22.05.

SD/100 = $841

30K BR gives you a ROR of 4.46%
10K BR = 35.45%
BR less than that, flirting with disaster.

If he spreads higher than $300, ofcourse that increases expectation, but also increases ROR.

And this all assumes play all(no wonging) and perfect play.
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In fact my friend doesn't even take card counting seriously

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[wickss]

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$100/hr at a $25 table is an expectation of over 6%.

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In BJ you expect to make about 1 big bet per hour. If you are using a spread of $25 to $100 or $125 you could make $100 an hour and take home $1000 in a weekend.

[mike4bmp]

Has your friend ever tried "Wonging" (table hopping)....or counting 2 or 3 tables at a time for game selection is just as key as counting...counting is only half the battle...you can run and count an 8 deck shoe for 3 to 4 hours on a negative count. Also if your friend is just starting out then I have to believe that he has not had time enough at the tables to develop skills for anti-detection....I've been working on camoflauge for 2 years...and can still sense heat once in awhile...math whizz or not these kinds of things take alot of time and practice to develop....so I wouldn't believe what your friend is telling you....

[pzhon]

People exaggerate win rates. This is easy to do because the winning sessions are all recorded as due to skill, and the losing sessions can all be attributed to bad luck and ignored. You story of your friend's average win rate are not plausible.

NLHE with a $5 big blind should be much more profitable than green chip blackjack, with no risk of being identified and barred.

[PokerCat69]

If Casinos allowed you to bet whatever you want (within their table limits) without any heat/barring then blackjack would be about 100X better poker game.
The problem is you have to limit your spread, and limit your playing hours to avoid detection. Your playing AGAINST the house, and they hate losing money.
With poker you can play to your hearts content and the casino is happy.

Your far better playing poker then blackjack these days.
BTW I used to be a card counter, red chip betting mainly $5-$60. The swings can be brutal. Having a 1% advantage means very little during each session, as you can still lose hand after hand with max bets out.

[Cyrus]

Just want to comment on the relative intelligence required to card count in Blackjack as opposed to playing advantage poker:

Card counting, by itself, requires the intelligence of learning hand selection pre-flop in hold 'em.