AK PF - Easy laydown?

[zgall1]

It has been tough getting reads on these guys and I am dead tired because it is 5 AM and I didn't expect to make it this far.

Seat 1: zgall1 [KH,AD] ($58,713 in chips)
Seat 2: bignewf ($37,940 in chips)
Seat 3: gandolph420 ($36,887 in chips)
Seat 4: tason1101 ($7,640 in chips)
Seat 6: velocheese ($19,591 in chips)
Seat 7: rustyf_UAC ($40,080 in chips)
Seat 8: HuP ($11,863 in chips)
Seat 9: d-nice_97 ($51,701 in chips)
Seat 10: Shep204 ($13,085 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
zgall1 posts blind ($800), bignewf posts blind ($1,600).

PRE-FLOP
gandolph420 folds, tason1101 bets $4,000, velocheese folds, rustyf_UAC bets $7,000, HuP folds, d-nice_97 calls $7,000, Shep204 bets $13,085 and is all-in, zgall ???

[betgo]

Push.

[zgall1]

From the small feel I have for the table, I believe I will get called by a PP almost every time here. Does that make the push wrong? Sorry for not including this information in the original post.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
From the small feel I have for the table, I believe I will get called by a PP almost every time here. Does that make the push wrong? Sorry for not including this information in the original post.


[/ QUOTE ]
Push.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
Push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh.. to a UTG raise, a reraise, a cold call of that reraise, and a push re-re-raise?

Maybe i didnt read the HH right, but this is not looking good for your AK...

If it were just the UTG guy and the guy that ended up pushing.. it would be one thing, but the re-raiser and the cold caller both have you covered.

At the very least your outs are damaged.

I'm not sure this is a fold, but you've gotta say more than just 'push' to convince me that it's right w/ all that action.

[dmk]

easy fold

[nsj]

A push here looks like a very obvious squeeze play on the short stacks. The min-raiser and the cold caller, both of whom have stacks that will cripple you, are your real concerns here.

Without any specific reads, the min-raise from the 40K stack is either a very poor isolation attempt, or an attempt to entice a couple of callers to try and win a big pot. The cold call from the 51K stack is tough to interpret without a solid read. He too could be looking to bust the 40k stack with a big pair, and wouldn't mind another short stack coming along.

In spite of the dead money/great odds that a successful overpush will get you (13k to win ~34K, with no threat to your stack), I think 40K or 51K will call with 99+ too often to make it worthwhile.

This seems to me like one of those situations where the math might warrant a push, but it's a small edge late in a tournament where you are chip leader and have the ammo to be more selective and accumulate chips by stealing small pots without risking 80% of your stack. I try to find a fold here.

I would throw this one away in a heartbeat. As Exitonly said, your outs are damaged here and you are probably up against one or two already made hands which could be AA,KK,QQ in which you are not in a good shape. I'm thinking one of them got AA or KK here so it's a fold. Get them next round instead tiger [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[augie00]

It looks like you're pretty deep in this tournament. How far are you from the money? What's the average stack size? What's the buyin?

These are important questions, but in any case you have a raise, a re-raise, a cold call, and then an all in. The all-in rarely has less than queens, and assuming he has queens is pretty risky. Actually, now that I think about it, it doesn't really matter if he has queens. It's a push if he has queens.

I think the most important factor that points to this being a fold is rustyf_UAC. He has 40k, which would be a crippling blow to your stack. If I knew he was going to fold I would push here with AK in an instant, but you can't be sure if he's going to fold.

I would not worry about d-nice_97 as his cold call is not very threatening. He'd push a big hand there.

Muck it.

[hurlyburly]

I can't think of an easier laydown. You can be positive you're looking at lots of dead outs while behind at least one PP. Your equity is razor thin even if noone has a pair.