Time to fold a set?

xcrack999 · #1 08-25-2005, 01:25 PM

Villain is a maniac pre-flop with stats of 55/20, but more on the passive side post-flop. Who's folding this? Thanks for any help.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed)

Button ($13.35)
SB ($205.40)
Hero ($158.90)
UTG ($45.50)
MP ($99.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, Button calls $1, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($5) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets $3, Hero raises to $10, UTG folds, MP folds, Button raises to $12.35 (he's all-in), SB calls $9.35, Hero calls $2.35.

Turn: ($42.05) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $192.05 (All-In)(Basically putting me all-in for $145.55)

xorbie · #2 08-25-2005, 01:29 PM

Look at it this way. 88 is just as likely as 33, because he's going to play both like the nuts. On top of that, he might just have some wierd two pair (86), a power draw, a bluff, or whatever. On top of *that*, there's dead money in the pot, so assuming it's 50/50 ahead or behind, you still have to call.

I'm assuming you called and he showed you 88, but you have to call here.

wtfsvi · #3 08-25-2005, 01:31 PM

He would probably have raised 88 preflop with a 20% pfr. That leaves the straight to worry about. I'm calling.

#4 08-25-2005, 01:38 PM

I couldn't find it in me to lay down this hand against the opponent that you described. I think its more likely that he has 2 pair, and even if he has the straight, you have redraws. I call.

4_2_it · #5 08-25-2005, 01:44 PM

If you aren't going to call here, stop playing 66 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Seriously, you got a great flop and since you are up against a maniac this is an easy call.

If the villain's stats were say 15/4 with an aggression factor of 0.45 then you would have to reconsider, but still probably pay him off.

Final thought: If he has the straight you are still drawing live. Only 88 is a total abortion here.

xcrack999 · #6 08-25-2005, 01:53 PM

I guess you guys are right. I'm probably just too paranoid now from barely breaking even for 2 weeks now. What a way to make money. Oh yea, I called, and he had the straight. I thought that he can't be betting a straight draw with a postflop AF of 0.5, but ha, was i wrong.

krazyace5 · #7 08-25-2005, 06:29 PM

With the action and the flush draw on the board why not put in a big reraise on the flop?

#8 08-26-2005, 01:33 AM

He did. His reraise was about the size of the pot. Then another player went all in and his all in wasn't big enough to reopen the betting so villain ended up getting decent odds to draw.

Benholio · #9 08-26-2005, 01:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you guys are right. I'm probably just too paranoid now from barely breaking even for 2 weeks now. What a way to make money. Oh yea, I called, and he had the straight. I thought that he can't be betting a straight draw with a postflop AF of 0.5, but ha, was i wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Be careful giving too much credit to PFA numbers without a big sample size. Also, with very loose players, a lower aggro number doesn't narrow his holdings when he bets pre-flop as much as it would for a tighter player. (he's playing 55% of hands, with 0.5 aggression even just on the flop that would mean he is betting/raising the flop twice per orbit)

p.s. Nothing I said means don't call with yout set, just thought it was worth mentioning, since PT stat "reads" are often problematic.

srm80 · #10 08-26-2005, 02:09 AM

I think he means why did hero only call the SBs all-in, after villian calls. Hero had the option to put in another nice sized raise here, but chose to call the 2.95 I think it was. Does anyone disagree with a push here, or a big overbet?