squeeze play coming - do you still make the play

[familyteeth]

M=15 pot odds 4.6 to 1, no stopping the action, the bb is very active, are you in?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (10 handed) converter

UTG+1 (t4530)
UTG+2 (t4746)
MP1 (t8450)
MP2 (t6500)
MP3 (t2070)
CO (t2286)
Button (t16660)
Hero (t6806)
BB (t2374)
UTG (t3150)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t700</font>, UTG+2 calls t700, MP1 calls t700, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls t700, 1 fold[/i]</font>, <font color="#CC3333"> Hero ?

<font color="white"> Hero folds[/i]BB raises [t2374] t300, UTG+1 calls t1674, UTG+2 calls t1674, MP1 folds, CO calls [t1586] t700.

Flop: (t6598) Ad, 7s, 6h (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 calls [t2372] , UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (t6598) 4s (3 players)

River: (t6598) 4c (3 players)

Final Pot: t6598
bb 99 utg+2 AK c/o 6c7c</font>

[adanthar]

There are two lines I would use here:

1)Push now
2)Wait for BB to push, some yokels to overcall and then overpush

3)Your fold suuuuuuuuuucked (there need to be more u's in there)

[0evg0]

Okay, hold on, let me get this straight...

YOU FOLDED?!?!?!?!?!

This is an instant push every day of the week. The only reason I favor this is because you could end up looking silly if BB doesn't want to play along with option 2.

[A_PLUS]

At first, I thought your question was to call, hoping the BB would push for you, so you could either overpush, or get heads up with some dead money.

I thought that was too risky.

THEN I read the white stuff

ARE YOU SERIOUS?????????????

My idea of risk was that you werent going to be able to get all of your ships in preflop if your read on the BB wasnt perfect.

Dude, you cant fold that hand, and honestly expect to win. This is the situation that even the weakest tightest players wait for.

[SixgunSam]

Auto-push. Unless you're in a really low limit tournament, the only guy calling is going to be UTG+1. This was a big opportunity for you.

[ansky451]

This fold is bad. What are you fearing? You might get a call from a middle pair, but at least you put them to the test if you push. there is so much money in there now i would have considered pushing with a lot worse than AK. Next time you get a golden oppurtunity like this, dont waste it.

[familyteeth]

thanks for the replies,
My first line was push to isolate,
I knew bb was in with any hand, The villain in my mind was utg+2, solid,
and one over caller, with the bb

Then I had a second thought, I wonder if I can fold this hand? Nah, but then I thought maybe I can.

I'd just spent the day (yesterday) running a table of - holdem hands vs std range of villain hands.
ev table etc,
I couldn't see winning this hand, often enough for what might be 3:1 probably 5:1

I've run std range in Poker Stove for 3, 4 and 5 villain against AK and it choked,
I backed the range off and the best I get is 10% to 25% in Poker Stove. 15% on a results based range. So what it's only chips.
If I'm correct and I do get 3 in with me, pot odds are there. If I'm wrong and I get 2 with one monster, they are not.

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for the replies,
My first line was push to isolate,
I knew bb was in with any hand, The villain in my mind was utg+2, solid,
and one over caller, with the bb

Then I had a second thought, I wonder if I can fold this hand? Nah, but then I thought maybe I can.

I'd just spent the day (yesterday) running a table of - holdem hands vs std range of villain hands.
ev table etc,
I couldn't see winning this hand, often enough for what might be 3:1 probably 5:1

I've run std range in Poker Stove for 3, 4 and 5 villain against AK and it choked,
I backed the range off and the best I get is 10% to 25% in Poker Stove. 15% on a results based range. So what it's only chips.
If I'm correct and I do get 3 in with me, pot odds are there. If I'm wrong and I get 2 with one monster, they are not.

[/ QUOTE ]

That analysis is intensely wrong. Like, really really wrong. Please copy and paste your pokerstove results because you are definitely making a mistake. even if he has kings you are better than 25%. AK is better than you think apparently.

[familyteeth]

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 15.4583 % [ 00.01 00.14 ] { AcKd }
Hand 2: 15.4583 % [ 00.01 00.14 ] { AKo }
Hand 3: 47.9726 % [ 00.48 00.00 ] { 99 }
Hand 4: 21.1108 % [ 00.21 00.00 ] { 76s }

Hand 1: 26.1201 % [ 00.25 00.01 ] { AcKd }
Hand 2: 36.4290 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { QQ-99, AKs-A9s, AQo-A9o }
Hand 3: 22.6118 % [ 00.21 00.01 ] { AA-99, AKs-A7s, KQs-KJs, AKo-A7o, KQo-KJo }
Hand 4: 14.8391 % [ 00.14 00.01 ] { A6s, KTs, 76s, AQo, A7o, KTo }

Hand 1: 14.0544 % [ 00.02 00.12 ] { AcKd }
Hand 2: 14.0544 % [ 00.02 00.12 ] { AhKs }
Hand 3: 54.8079 % [ 00.55 00.00 ] { 99 }
Hand 4: 17.0832 % [ 00.17 00.00 ] { A6s, KTs, 76s, AQo, A7o, KTo }

Hand 1: 18.7194 % [ 00.02 00.17 ] { AcKd }
Hand 2: 18.7194 % [ 00.02 00.17 ] { AhKs }
Hand 3: 38.0673 % [ 00.37 00.01 ] { 88, ATs, AJo }
Hand 4: 24.4940 % [ 00.23 00.01 ] { 99, 66, AKs-A7s, KJs-KTs, 76s, AKo-A7o, KJo-KTo }

Hand 1: 09.2060 % [ 00.01 00.08 ] { AcKd }
Hand 2: 09.9219 % [ 00.02 00.08 ] { AhKs }
Hand 3: 22.3219 % [ 00.22 00.01 ] { 88, ATs, AJo }
Hand 4: 14.7745 % [ 00.15 00.00 ] { 66, 76s, ATo }
Hand 5: 20.8911 % [ 00.21 00.00 ] { JJ, 77, A7s, A7o }
Hand 6: 22.8846 % [ 00.22 00.01 ] { TT-88, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }

Hand 1: -1.#IND % [ -1.#J -1.#J ] { AcKd }
Hand 2: -1.#IND % [ -1.#J -1.#J ] { 88, AQs-ATs, AQo-AJo }
Hand 3: -1.#IND % [ -1.#J -1.#J ] { JJ-99, AKs-ATs, AKo-ATo }
Hand 4: -1.#IND % [ -1.#J -1.#J ] { QQ-55, AKs-A7s, JTs, T9s, 98s, AKo-A7o }
Hand 5: -1.#IND % [ -1.#J -1.#J ] { 77-44, KTs, K6s, QTs, Q6s, KJo, K9o, Q9o }
Hand 6: -1.#IND % [ -1.#J -1.#J ] { AhKs }
Hand 7: -1.#IND % [ -1.#J -1.#J ] { QQ-88, AKs-A7s, AKo-A8o }

and I maintain this pot was not going to be isolated, it was multiway all the way

I view a std range of holdings heads up as
A thru 7
K thru Js
Pairs to 55

[A_PLUS]

Come on bro, of course if you give one opponent EXACTLY AK, your results are going to look bad. Unless you are Dr. Emmit Brown, you cant give him an exact range like that (it doesnt matter that he actually had AK).

Also, you are not sure that this is going to be a multi-way pot. The way it played out, it was, but it may have been different if the original pusher was the tightest man alive i.e. you, rather than someone who you knew with 100% certainty was going to push from the BB.

Bad bad play, the sooner you realize it the better. I understand the natural human instinct to defend your move, but seriously, if you want to be a winning poker player, understanding why this was such a bad move is important.