Pushing with draw. Good? Bad? Maniacal?

xcrack999 · #1 06-20-2005, 01:09 PM

Villain in this hand is a loose-passive, with VPIP of 78 and post flop aggression factor of .75. Any comments greatly appreciated.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Hero ($44.25)
Button ($27.32)
SB ($26.43)
BB ($23.05)
UTG ($19.4)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, Button calls $1, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.75.

Flop: ($3.35) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3, Button raises to $10, UTG folds, Hero calls $40.25 (All-In)????

-Skeme- · #2 06-20-2005, 01:15 PM

A passive player raised 3x your pot bet on a super draw-heavy board. Furthermore, he only has like $14 bucks left. I'm 99% sure he's not folding here, so the semi-bluff is only good if you want to gamble. I doubt you're ahead here, gl.

xorbie · #3 06-20-2005, 01:17 PM

He probably has something like two pair, and he's not folding, but you're really not in terrible shape.

djoyce003 · #4 06-20-2005, 01:18 PM

well, villain is really passive, so the question is what does he have here......hard to put him on a range of hands here as he flat called preflop....if he has aces or kings he slowplayed them. If you think this guy will fold it's not an absolutely terrible bet, but you are definitely behind, the question is how behind. If he has an 8 or a 9 your ace outs might be tainted, obviously your spade outs are good unless he has a set then at least 1 of them is no good right now. I'd say you have the clean spade outs and discounted ace and queen outs. You aren't getting the odds to make your bet but you aren't really far off either, especially if you have any significant fold equity here.

Mercman572 · #5 06-20-2005, 01:23 PM

Normally I would like this against a more agrressive villain, but you said he's passive? Do you figure your overs to be live? What is Villain's WtSD% more importantly? With some fold equity I think this is a good play

Delphin · #6 06-20-2005, 02:17 PM

I think if he had a deeper stack this is a more reasonable move. He's already got $11 of his $27 stack in the middle. What is the chance he will fold for $16 more?

If you have my luck, he probably called with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], the turn came 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] giving you the nut flush, and the river was 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] giving him the straight flush. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

That guy · #7 06-20-2005, 02:54 PM

I wrote a few posts and deleted them...

I have come to the conclusion that there isn't much difference in EV between pushing and mucking, given your read...

You are either a very small favorite or a modest underdog... pot odds offset some of the underdog factor making this very close...

if you believe in your read, muck... if your read is based on a small sample size... I don't see how you can muck and I would push it. Pushing is clearly better than calling.

Net net, mucking = pushing > calling...

you are getting 1.4x on your money... that is enough for me unless my read is really strong. only vs set do you have less than 9 outs. on average, I think you have at least 10 outs. there is a small chance you have 15 outs. add a little bit of fold equity in case your stats are faulty (sample size not reflective of his play) and you are there.

In these situations, I gamble...

ticks · #8 06-20-2005, 04:00 PM

Compare and contrast:

Villain is a LAG.
Very aggressive, both pre and post.
No maniac though.
My theory:
Aggressive players like aggression from others
like vampires like garlic.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+2 ($18.5)
MP1 ($15.45)
MP2 ($32.55)
MP3 ($7.23)
CO ($6.3)
Button ($49.08)
SB ($49.25)
Hero ($41.22)
UTG ($29.85)
UTG+1 ($12.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
7 folds, Button raises to $0.5, SB (poster) calls $0.40, Hero raises to $1.25, Button folds, SB calls $1.

Flop: ($3.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB raises to $5, Hero calls $37.72 (All-In), SB folds.

Final Pot: $48.22

Results in white below: 
No showdown. Hero wins $48.22. 

Before folding, Villain says:
hm i think 10s are good but not worth it

That guy · #9 06-20-2005, 04:24 PM

that looks just plain reckless...

what flops were you not going all-in on?

risking $48 means you have to not get called a ton of times for this to be correct...

xcrack999 · #10 06-20-2005, 04:25 PM

Thanks for all the replies. Like a lot of you said, I was in the mood for some gambling. (I'm always in the mood for gambling. Maybe that's why I have such big swings... hmm...) He called with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The turn came 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and he took the pot. DOH!