#11
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Re: Paradise 0.5/$1 Full Ring- Hows my line?
I really didnt think that I had an edge here (ignore the OP numbers- it was late), on the flop I figured that this was an even EV at best call to make. The deciding factor was the size of the pot- I'm sure Ed Miller said that when faced with a marginal decision, call in a big pot but fold in a small pot. I really dont think that this hand is worth a raise or a check raise in this spot.
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#12
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Re: Paradise 0.5/$1 Full Ring- Hows my line?
It's not marginal.
Best situation - no overpair and no flush draw: cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 4d 4h 430 52.44 378 46.10 12 1.46 0.528 Js Ac 79 9.63 681 83.05 60 7.32 0.129 Ks Ad 114 13.90 646 78.78 60 7.32 0.172 9c Td 137 16.71 671 81.83 12 1.46 0.171 2nd best situation - no flush draw but there is an overpair: cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 4d 4h 258 31.46 548 66.83 14 1.71 0.319 Ks Kc 461 56.22 345 42.07 14 1.71 0.566 Ad Kh 72 8.78 734 89.51 14 1.71 0.092 9c Td 15 1.83 791 96.46 14 1.71 0.023 Flush draw is out there but no overpair: cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 4d 4h 255 31.10 558 68.05 7 0.85 0.313 Ac Qc 90 10.98 691 84.27 39 4.76 0.131 Ah Kh 44 5.37 737 89.88 39 4.76 0.075 Td 9d 392 47.80 421 51.34 7 0.85 0.480 The dreaded flush draw + overpair: cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV 4d 4h 161 19.63 649 79.15 10 1.22 0.199 Jc Jh 276 33.66 534 65.12 10 1.22 0.340 Ah Kh 83 10.12 727 88.66 10 1.22 0.104 Td 9d 290 35.37 520 63.41 10 1.22 0.357 Here is starts to look poor. If you look at the difference in EV between hands two and four it would appear that raising/calling is the same EV if the odds of a flush draw being out is 50/50. However there is no reason to think that the odds are 50/50 that a flush draw is out. The fact that there are two diamonds on the board makes it less likely of course that anybody started with diamonds - in addition you have one of the diamonds in your hand. But even if you knew for sure that the odds of a flush draw being out was even money id still raise. You have the advantage of seeing if that diamond hits or not. If you make your hand by the river but no diamond falls you know you can jam away. But if the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls on the rived you know you may have to slow down if there is any serious action. |
#13
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Re: Paradise 0.5/$1 Full Ring- Hows my line?
Cheers for running the numbers. I put in the actual cards I was up against, and it was pretty much the situation you described with between 20 and 30% PE.
I actually came fairly close to folding, but this was just the NL part of my brain talking. I guess this is what he means in SSHE about being agressive with strong draws in big pots. equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 29.1688 % 27.75% 01.42% { 4d4h } Hand 2: 44.1879 % 43.85% 00.34% { QcQs } Hand 3: 11.8256 % 11.12% 00.71% { Ac2c } Hand 4: 14.8176 % 12.97% 01.85% { random } |
#14
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Re: Paradise 0.5/$1 Full Ring- Hows my line?
Ack, I'm horribly, horribly wrong. Niediam is the man.
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#15
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Re: Paradise 0.5/$1 Full Ring- Hows my line?
In my opinion your hand should have been folded pre-flop since your chance of hitting a set is 1:7.5, you have only one limper, bad position after the flop and a LAG to act after you.
Your play after the flop is fine though. sunek |
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