Right Move

[45suited]

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There is no reason to play AQo against a raise in the 3rd level of a SnG. Particularly one with blind structures that are slow.

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Calling with AQo for 9% of your stack six handed and playing the hand in position is fine.

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If you like putting all of your money when you dont need or have the odds to, then whatever floats your boat. I was almost hoping you were going to reply back because you forgot to add your </sarcasm> tag.

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Hero was getting 1.55:1 to call on the flop push. A huge overlay when you consider the hand that he was up against. Are you saying that if you saw villain's hand face up that you would not make this call here with the nut flush draw and two overcards?

[maddog2030]

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However, considering the other possibilities (which I guess I consider more real than you do), I'm still liking the way I'm counting outs/seeing this as a -chipEV call.

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Let me put it this way: everything in the coinflip department is an obvious call because of the existing pot.

Now the only question is how often he is a dog versus how often he is far ahead. To be an overall coinflip between a dog and a favorite, he needs to be 80% ahead around 40% of the time he's not a coinflip (this is the case when he faces a flush draw). In other words, he can be a 28% dog 60% of the time and still be a coinflip on average (when he faces two pair or better).

He's not going to be going into this hand a huge dog 60% of the time that he's not a coinflip. Being the dog is much harder to do than being the solid favorite here, especially at this level. And these numbers are only going for a coinflip, which gives you a overlay of 10% since you only need to be a 40% favorite to make a neutral chipEV call.

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Especially assuming that Hero is a better player than the majority of his opponents, I think even if the outs align and he's barely chip-justified in calling, he's -$EV in doing so...those chips will be put to better use in all his +$EV FE situations later in the tournament that others won't take advantage of.

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I don't think it's close enough for that to be a factor. In fact I think this is reducing his edge over the field by folding here at this level.

[maddog2030]

Also, doing a quick ICM of the situation, you only need a +3% extra chipEV edge to make this a breakeven tournament call according to ICM, or 43%. So with the calculations above and the range your opponent is probably on, this is still a bad fold $EV wise.