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#11
07-21-2005, 12:28 PM
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Re: Right Move
[ QUOTE ]
i think you're confused....villian had the 88. hero had AQo. [/ QUOTE ] villain technically has a pair and a (lower) flush draw. the diamond being removed from the deck hurts hero a little. not sure if that's what the dude meant. 
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#12
07-21-2005, 12:31 PM
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Re: Right Move
[ QUOTE ]
i think you're confused....villian had the 88. hero had AQo. [/ QUOTE ] Confused where? A 14 out draw is slightly ahead against a pair. You're absolutely crushing a flush draw, which is the most likely hand to be making a move in this situation. For the opponents particular 88 hand, you are slightly behind because he has both a pair and a flush draw. Your pot odds are still plenty good enough to call.
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#13
07-21-2005, 12:37 PM
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Re: Right Move
I see nothing wrong with the way the hand was played, including the pre-flop call. Against some opponents, I'd re-raise (very loose, very aggressive opponents) but calling seems fine with your stack and those blinds.
Calling the flop push is mandatory. Folding would have been horrible.
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#14
07-21-2005, 12:37 PM
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Re: Right Move
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You are absolutely not ahead of both. [/ QUOTE ] Yes you are. [/ QUOTE ] No, you're really not. Do the math or go to a Poker Odds Calculator -- Hero is most definitely behind. [ QUOTE ] On the flop, against the pair of 8's, our hero was about 48-52. [/ QUOTE ] This is about the strongest hand I'd expect to see barring trips. Also note this is a pair AND a flush draw. [/ QUOTE ] Okay, great...so villain also had a lower flush draw. That hurts Hero and has little bearing on why he's behind. And how can you possibly say this is the strongest hand you'd expect to be shown? How is it not reasonable that villain already has a set or a flush? Answer...it's perfectly reasonable, but you're not considering that possibility. [ QUOTE ] You're behind everything villain MAY have except a lower flush draw...which I SUPPOSE could be KdQx or KxQd. But that's the only thing even a fairly aggressive villain is raising with that you're currently ahead of. [/ QUOTE ] You're overestimating the opponents at this level. I'd expect to a see a villian at this level to push any diamond he would've raised with. And this is why I think it makes the call a no brainer. [/ QUOTE ] Well, then I believe you're underestimating villains generally and you're also misunderstanding where Hero is in this particular hand. He's a dog against EVERYTHING he could be up against EXCEPT a lower flush draw. He's a significant dog if he's up against something better than one pair.
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#15
07-21-2005, 12:41 PM
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Re: Right Move
[ QUOTE ]
Well, then I believe you're underestimating villains generally and you're also misunderstanding where Hero is in this particular hand. He's a dog against EVERYTHING he could be up against EXCEPT a lower flush draw. He's a significant dog if he's up against something better than one pair. [/ QUOTE ] This is ridiculous. Villain is short and could be pulling a stop-n-go. It's actually possible that hero has the better hand at this point. Plus he has two overs and the nut flush draw. And getting around 3:2 to call. Folding would be atrocious.
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#16
07-21-2005, 12:51 PM
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Re: Right Move
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i think you're confused....villian had the 88. hero had AQo. [/ QUOTE ] Confused where? A 14 out draw is slightly ahead against a pair. You're absolutely crushing a flush draw, which is the most likely hand to be making a move in this situation. For the opponents particular 88 hand, you are slightly behind because he has both a pair and a flush draw. Your pot odds are still plenty good enough to call. [/ QUOTE ] Okay...but seriously, the problem with that logic is that you're over-valuing your outs. If villain has a set, you have 9 outs and then on the turn (assuming you're not already dead), he has a 10 out redraw. If villain already has the flush, you have 7 outs. You may not believe those things to be likely, but they have to be considered. Sorry that this is SSHE logic, but what if you counted those outs at a more reasonable 11? Then you're ~ 1.7-to-1 to make the best hand, and ~ 1.5-to-1 from the pot on the call (my math is somewhat sketchy considering I'm doing other things and don't have charts or a calculator in front of me). Anyway...does this not seem like a fold if you estimate your outs in a way that recognizes they might not all be good?
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#17
07-21-2005, 12:53 PM
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Re: Right Move
[ QUOTE ]
I see nothing wrong with the way the hand was played, including the pre-flop call. Against some opponents, I'd re-raise (very loose, very aggressive opponents) but calling seems fine with your stack and those blinds. [/ QUOTE ] There is no reason to play AQo against a raise in the 3rd level of a SnG. Particularly one with blind structures that are slow. [ QUOTE ] Calling the flop push is mandatory. Folding would have been horrible. [/ QUOTE ] If you like putting all of your money when you dont need or have the odds to, then whatever floats your boat. I was almost hoping you were going to reply back because you forgot to add your </sarcasm> tag.
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#18
07-21-2005, 12:56 PM
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Re: Right Move
[ QUOTE ]
No, you're really not. Do the math or go to a Poker Odds Calculator -- Hero is most definitely behind. [/ QUOTE ] <font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>pokenum -h ah qd - tc th -- 7d 9d 4d Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9d 7d 4d cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Qd Ah 510 51.52 480 48.48 0 0.00 0.515 Tc Th 480 48.48 510 51.52 0 0.00 0.485</pre><hr /> [ QUOTE ] How is it not reasonable that villain already has a set or a flush? Answer...it's perfectly reasonable, but you're not considering that possibility. [/ QUOTE ] I already mentioned the set possibility earlier. The flush is a smaller possibility since it will probably not be played this way, even by a total chimp. [ QUOTE ] He's a dog against EVERYTHING he could be up against EXCEPT a lower flush draw. [/ QUOTE ] Or a pair. And I think these are going to be what you see nearly every time. Even when villian has this pair with a flush draw its still a very good call. [ QUOTE ] He's a significant dog if he's up against something better than one pair. [/ QUOTE ] Pretty unlikely. The time's you run into this will more than be made up for by the smaller flush draws pushing.
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#19
07-21-2005, 01:04 PM
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Re: Right Move
Well, then you and I are going to have to agree to disagree. I understand that against one pair with no diamonds in it Hero is a very slight favorite.
However, considering the other possibilities (which I guess I consider more real than you do), I'm still liking the way I'm counting outs/seeing this as a -chipEV call. Especially assuming that Hero is a better player than the majority of his opponents, I think even if the outs align and he's barely chip-justified in calling, he's -$EV in doing so...those chips will be put to better use in all his +$EV FE situations later in the tournament that others won't take advantage of.
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#20
07-21-2005, 01:08 PM
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Re: Right Move
[ QUOTE ]
You may not believe those things to be likely, but they have to be considered. [/ QUOTE ] You're about a 28% dog if he has trips. Realize this will be rare so while you will be a significant dog, you won't be most of the time. [ QUOTE ] Anyway...does this not seem like a fold if you estimate your outs in a way that recognizes they might not all be good? [/ QUOTE ] Any time it's likely one of your outs is taken in this situation (he has an ace or queen), you're probably already ahead in the hand so you no longer need them. I'd do the math to show the equity you have in this hand, but I'm at work and would need some PokerStove results to do it.
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