NL and Draws

[revlis87]

well... so ive been on a terrible downswing so i decided i ought to swallow my ego and start posting hands here... but before i do here is a general question...
400 NL, 1st orbit at the table no reads... player with standard raising range makes it 15 to go from EP... (AA-99, AK - A-10) im in SB with 8 9 h. and call as does the BB. (The point is, I am out of position ...) $45 in the pot...

Flop comes down 2 h 3 h 10 x... i lead expecting to get raised and push or check call the flop??? This is more of a theory question... Assume EP calls with overpair + A 10 here... is it the right play to lead and push?

Lets here it... Thanks!

[wtfsvi]

I don't think raising AT from EP is included in a "standard raising range".

[n1bd]

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400 NL, 1st orbit at the table no reads... player with standard raising range makes it 15 to go from EP... (AA-99, AK - A-10)

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You do have reads, you state them throughout your post. Reads are essential if you are going to be doing this.

This is not a standard raising range in EP in NLHE.

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i lead expecting to get raised and push

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Are you saying he raises you with all his hands or just his good ones (is he raising your lead with AJ and 99)? If he raises your lead with all of his hands and then folds anything worse than AT, then sure, this is a good, profitable line.

But it's only profitable if your opponent is crappy LAG like you describe; this is where reads come in. If he is decent, then your strategy (call out of sb with any Axs and any suited connector 65s+, lead-push when you flop a flush draw) is exploitable, because you have a flush draw when you do this much more often than you have a set.

Fold fold fold preflop. This isn't short handed. This isn't tournament poker. There is no reason to call with 89h against an EP raise in the SB (ack!) with no reads on any of your opponents, and no other callers.

Even if you flop a draw, most of the time you are only going to be able to see the turn, with incorrect pot odds to boot, and little implied odds to back it up. Implied odds on flush draws on the flop are terrible. People shut down when the flush draw hits. It's almost automatic.

This is the type of hand that is a leak in many NL players games. If you play it passively, you're most likely only going to get to see 4 cards, and not get the big payout on the turn if you hit. And if you play it aggressively, you will lose a large amount of your stack many times, and not even get to see the draw.

What happens when you check, bb checks, and he bets 45. You don't want to raise because a majority of his range of hands are just going to re-reraise and shut you out. You don't want to call getting 2-1 odds because you only have about a 5.5-1 chance to hit on the next card.

What happens when you lead out with 30 and he raises to 100? This hand doesn't play well any way I think about it.

Not to mention they are colors! Everybody sees colors! 1 gap straight draws are the implied odds gold mine.

Check call the flop, and if a 7 or a J come off on the turn, either lead into him or checkraise him. If a heart comes off, lead for 2/3 pot. You will put yourself in tough spots playing this way (and it probably won't help the variance problem), but you'll also be providing great cover for your sets and other big hands (you'll play them similarly).

A lot of the time you will miss the flush on the turn, but the raiser will have Ace high only and will check behind on the turn, giving you another crack at your draw. If you miss your draw n the river after he has checked behind on the turn then you can bet and take it down some of the time.

You could, of course, play like a nit and never call from the small blind with anything except AK or a pocket pair in this situation, but it doesn't sound like you want to do that and I don't blame you.