#1
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2-4 Turn decision?
Seat 1: <font color="red"> Hero </font> ($141 in chips)
Seat 2: MattyBells ($74 in chips) Seat 3: dontttttt ($54 in chips) Seat 4: Stevo72 ($54.50 in chips) Seat 5: FLIPTOGOOD ($52.50 in chips) Seat 6: jamesr450 ($97.50 in chips) MattyBells: posts small blind $1 dontttttt: posts big blind $2 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to <font color="red"> Hero </font> [K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] Stevo72: calls $2 FLIPTOGOOD: folds jamesr450: folds <font color="red"> Hero </font> : raises $2 to $4 MattyBells: calls $3 dontttttt: calls $2 Stevo72: calls $2 *** FLOP *** [4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] MattyBells: bets $2 dontttttt: folds Stevo72: calls $2 <font color="red"> Hero </font> : calls $2 *** TURN *** [4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] [5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] MattyBells: bets $4 Stevo72: calls $4 <font color="red"> Hero </font> ? (Does the inside straight draw give me odds to call this profitably. I dont know if my king or ace are live as king/ace jack is a possible holding for one of my opponents). If I give my ace and king 1.5 outs each then I have 7 outs but if some else is holding an ace I might split it the two hits. How many outs should I give myself here and I should I have made this call. |
#2
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Re: 2-4 Turn decision?
I would fold here. Your A/K could also be drawing dead to AJ / KJ and a threeflush could come on the board
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#3
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Re: 2-4 Turn decision?
After I read middle limit holdem poker I've gotten very tight in these situations. Knowing that book is tight beyond reasoble sense I would still count you outs like:
Overs: 1.5 outs each -> ~3 outs Gut-shot: 1.5 outs (another ace or a 6 might be out, and a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] puts 3 to a flush on the board) So I would give you at best 5 outs, which would lead us to a fold. I'm not adding any implied odds here. It's a pretty slim decision IMO. |
#4
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Re: 2-4 Turn decision?
i think you're discounting the outs hero has WAY too much, here
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#5
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Re: 2-4 Turn decision?
but he could also have 10 outs
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#6
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Re: 2-4 Turn decision?
[ QUOTE ]
i think you're discounting the outs hero has WAY too much, here [/ QUOTE ] Overs: 1.75 outs each -> ~3.5 outs Gut-shot: 2 outs (another ace or a 6 might be out, and a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] puts 3 to a flush on the board) Better? I really don't think we can give more than this. It would turn it into a call, but it's still a pretty marginal. |
#7
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Re: 2-4 Turn decision?
in your next post will you bump the overs up another .25 outs apiece?
and why must a 6 be out? or a flush draw? or another ace? yeah, you should take these things into consideration, but a single flop bet and a call doesn't mean that you're reverse dominated and suddenly you'll make your hand and still lose. if an ace fell on the flop and that J on the turn would you really consider yourself 50/50 to win, because somebody likely has AJ, or something? that's essentially what you're doing when you give halve your outs because of worse-case perspectives on opponent's holdings. yeah, the turn fold is easy... but the flop call is damned easy, too. |
#8
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Re: 2-4 Turn decision?
Don't use handles in your posts. Use a converter -- much easier to read; they keep a running pot count for instance.
You're getting 8 to 1 on the call drawing to a 1-card str8 and tainted OCs--KJ, AJ have you reverse dominated. I'd fold with 2 players already in. That said, why no flop raise for a free card? If somebody bets out on the turn it makes this decision much easier, IMO. |
#9
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Re: 2-4 Turn decision?
[ QUOTE ]
and why must a 6 be out? or a flush draw? or another ace? [/ QUOTE ] I was thinking all these combined... A 6 or a flushdraw isn't likely, but possible and in that case the outs for a straight is 0. Another A is pretty likely and would make our straight outs 2. [ QUOTE ] if an ace fell on the flop and that J on the turn would you really consider yourself 50/50 to win, because somebody likely has AJ, or something? [/ QUOTE ] Well, we don't have to reverse dominated to hit and lose. We could be up against 44/33/JJ a flush draw and also more unlikely holdings like J4/43. A 2 isn't likely, but that would also eliminate your A outs. Maybe 2 outs each is better for the overs... |
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