Open pushing in later stages

I think you can make this play with a M of 20 with 99+, plus AK. I think only making this play with a mid pair in late position or AK really hampers your playing style. You will be seen as predictable by people, who you could play with later in future tournaments or in this tournament if you double up and are forced to push again a half hour later. Open pushing QQ, KK, or AA also will be a surprise to your opponents who may call with a mid pocket pair expecting a coinflip, in which case they are a 54-46 fav.

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So with AA, KK, and QQ you're open pushing? But AK you're not?

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All this is of course caveated by situation, stack sizes, position in the deal, position in the money, etc.

But I'm "typically" not open pushing preflop with any of these hands unless there are extenuating circumstances.

With AA and KK, I want one or two callers so I can extract a penalty from them for playing against a monster.

With QQ, I want to see a flop for a reasonable cost, because there is likely to be at least one Ace and one King in a caller's hand and odds of at least one coming on the flop are roughly 2-1. I want to have the option to get away from QQ if necessary, even if it hurts. Better to be hurt and alive, than stuck drawing to 2 outs twice for all your marbles.

I'm not open pushing with AK primarily because it is highly likely to be a dog to any calling hand. This is a hand that I typically want to see a flop with, and the more out of position I am, the cheaper I want the cost of the flop to be.

[elmitchbo]

that line is a scared, weak play. it sounds like you're afraid of the boogeyman behind his cards.

pushing AK there puts your risk/reward all out of whack. why push to win a tiny pot when the only hands that are going to call you are a favorite? most of the time it works, because no one has a hand so you win a small pot, when some one does have a hand you're flipping at best.

making a raise with AK when you're M is 20(blinds going up shouldn't be a huge factor in your decision, your M is still 20) puts your risk/reward back where you want it. if things go wrong you loose alot less, and when things go right you win alot more.

when i have AK i don't think about having to make a crying continuation bet when i miss. all i'm thinking is "i have the best hand here, and i'm going to win far more often than not regardless of what cards come."

when i'm raising with J9o it's a little different. i'm thinking "i may or may not have the best hand here, but if i'm playing the hand i can find a way to win the pot."

no monsters under the bed... just good, strong, confident poker.

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I think it was Rizen who posted a tournament history where he was open pushing quite a bit and was wondering aloud whether it was a good idea. It's part of his game, partly to be "lazy" and to avoid making mistakes on later streets.

I've been open pushing a bit more lately myself when my M is around 10, maybe a little bit over. the blinds are getting up there.

The dilemma is, do you want to be offensive minded, be the aggressor and give up the ability to play defense while at the same time taking away the chance that you'll be defensive when you shouldn't, or have the chance to back off if others throw strength behind you.

If your M is around 11-13, if you make a 3x raise, and a 1/2 the pot continuation bet, that's more than half of your stack. So some people argue that you should just push
all-in since you're likely to be pot-committed on the flop anyway, thatyou should want to see all five board cards and that open pushing keeps you from making a mistake of folding when doing so would make you a small stack. It also
takes away a better player's ability to outplay you on later streets, and it may get better hands to fold.

On the other hand, open-pushing removes your ability to get out of harms way. If you raise to 3x the BB, and get an all-in and a call from a big stack, you can fold those good but not premium hands (ie 99 or AJs). If you open-pushed, you've lost your ability to get out of the way. if you raise to 3x the BB and get two callers, miss the flop, you can either continuation bet, or check-fold.

So the question for debate is, when should you open-push all-in in the later stages of an MTT?

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I don't think I ever did a very good job of really explaining this part, but I really think the key item in whether this is a good move or not is your chances of getting called by a lesser hand. In a lot of online tournaments (especially ones like the 40k on Party or even the Party supers that sat a lot of players in) you'll get a lot looser calls, so I think it's a much better move there.

Like I've attempted to say in previous posts, I don't think this is a move you should be like 'well I have 10M, and I want to play this hand, so I'll push' move. You need to have a read on the table that if you get called, it will be by a lesser hand often enough to make the times you pick up the pot contested + the times when you are called and win clearly +EV. I'm playing tournaments now so I can't run any math, but if I had QQ and 10M with 100/200 blinds and I felt the table's calling range on my push would be 99+/AQ+ then I think a push is definitley a move you should be considering. That kind of range isn't as uncommon as you might think in some online tournaments as well.

My stance really is and always has been that if open pushing around 10M isn't part of your 'poker toolbelt', then I think you're missing out on some value. Like any other tool though, it needs to be used in the right situation in order to be effective. Don't be the guy with the junk drawer full of odd screwdrivers and wrenches that doesn't know what any of it is for and just throws it all in there. Be the guy with an organized tool chest who knows where everything is, and knows how to quickly find the right tool for the job, even if it is one that should only be used ocasionally.

-Rizen

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add to that, that it matters what image the table has of you. If the table has seen you make a lot of loose or marginal plays that were showndown, you are more likely to get paid with your big hands and if the opposite is true and you've only been showing down good hands, then your more likely to get away with taking down the blinds.

[JohnG]

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So the question for debate is, when should you open-push all-in in the later stages of an MTT?

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When the ratios are right. Say when a normal raise would be around 40% of your stack or more. It's related to the pot odds you would be getting if you raised a normal amount and got re-raised allin, and maximising the pressure you are putting on others.

I think a lot of people like to complicate shallow money situations when they are mostly pretty simple.

[M.B.E.]

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Okay. Somewhat late in a large multitable tournament, say a $5. I have 12,500 in chips with the average at 11,000. There are 240 people left and they are paying 20% of the field or 340 people. Blinds are 300/600 but going up in 2 minutes (so in this case you can say they are 400/800 by the end of two hands). My M right now is 12500/600=20.8,

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No. Your M right now is 12500/900 = 14 (assuming no antes).

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If you raise to 1800 and then make a continuation bet of 2400 on a flop of Q 4 2 and get pushed all in you just cost yourself 4200 chips plus the minimum of 1200 within a few hands. That's 5400 chips out of the 12500.

Isn't it just smart to push or "overbet" your M of 20 because of varying factors like blinds moving up, your position on the table (close to the escalating blinds) and a hand that is the top drawing hand?

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You're in the cutoff; what are the stacks of the players behind you? If (for example) one of them has you covered but the other two are less than 5000, then pushing is a good play.

But if all three players behind you have you covered, then pushing AK from the cutoff with a stack 20 times the big blind is a bad play.

Raising to 1800 is not that good either, for the reasons you mention.

If the players behind you are aggressive, and have you covered, limp here with AK and hope someone raises so you can then push. Otherwise, minraising to 1200 is not bad. If you get called, you can c-bet the flop and if you have to lay it down you won't have put a huge dent in your stack. If there are antes then you need to raise to more than 1200 but not a lot more; 1500 should be enough.

[M.B.E.]

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If the players behind you are aggressive, and have you covered, limp here with AK and hope someone raises so you can then push. Otherwise, minraising to 1200 is not bad. If you get called, you can c-bet the flop and if you have to lay it down you won't have put a huge dent in your stack. If there are antes then you need to raise to more than 1200 but not a lot more; 1500 should be enough.

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Bumping this because it was supposed to cause controversy. Isn't anyone going to make the case against minraising?

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Okay. Somewhat late in a large multitable tournament, say a $5. I have 12,500 in chips with the average at 11,000. There are 240 people left and they are paying 20% of the field or 340 people. Blinds are 300/600 but going up in 2 minutes (so in this case you can say they are 400/800 by the end of two hands). My M right now is 12500/600=20.8, which is a high amount. I have AKo right in the cutoff. Even though at your current rate you have an M of 20, with the blinds going to 400/800 and you putting in at least 1200 in the next four hands isn't this a case of a push?

If you raise to 1800 and then make a continuation bet of 2400 on a flop of Q 4 2 and get pushed all in you just cost yourself 4200 chips plus the minimum of 1200 within a few hands. That's 5400 chips out of the 12500.

Isn't it just smart to push or "overbet" your M of 20 because of varying factors like blinds moving up, your position on the table (close to the escalating blinds) and a hand that is the top drawing hand?

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I personally think this is very bad, Gators. AK is a Sklansky group 1 hand and you're looking to drive away potential players with chips to take? You're way too deep at the point you described to make this move and hands likely to call this big of a bet will either be a race or have you dominated. AQ *might* call, but you're more likely to be called by someone with a mid PP and end up racing for all of your chips where you could have easily taken it down on any flop with overcards to his PP and a c-bet. You have great cards and position in the situation you presented, make use of them properly to win chips and not just steal the blinds. I think the remaining players here fold too often and when they do actually call you it's with hands that are ahead or splitting - so you're either winning a very small pot or losing a huge one. It should be the other way around.

I used to think I want to race with AK every time. I've learned that is not always the case.

[SteelheadGLX]

Good question.
I gauge the stacks behind me and their styles more than anything. If they have me covered by 1.5 or more, I open push less frequently because I don't like to race until my M<10. I actually prefer to come over the top with hands like 99 to a LAG villian open raise than to open-push. Again, depending on the LAG villian M.

[SteelheadGLX]

lol...that's one of the best analogies I've ever read.