Difficult hand - all diamond flop, turned a set against the chipleader

[WinBig]

Blinds are 150/300 and I have 16000. 450 players left in a $10 NL tourney on Party and I have the chipleader of the tourney with 24000 two to my right. I'm not looking to tangle much with him since he is the only player at the table that can bust me. He limps UTG+1 and the next player min-raises to 600 and I call with 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Obviously I'm looking to hit a set on the flop and fold to any action. Folded around to the BB who calls and the big stack also calls.

Four players see a flop of J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and it is checked around. I was last to act - should I have taken a shot at this pot here? I feel like any weak bet will be tested by the big stack so I checked. Pot is 2550 at this point so would a bet of 2000 taken this down most of the time? BB had 7400 and the original raiser had 10000 left.

Turn is the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I hit my set but I am very unsure what to do. BB checks, big stack bets 800 and the original raiser folds. I reraise to 3000 expecting a reraise or fold behind me, the BB folds and the big stack flat calls. At this point I really have no idea what he has with that call. I suppose the nut flush could play it this way but it seems like a baby flush would reraise to make me pay for a flush draw if I have the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Maybe he has JJ, 77 or 55 - I suppose I would play those hands that way. He could also have some sort of straight draw like 68 or 34 but that seems unlikely Comments on my turn reraise? Is he calling to set me up for a river bluff?

River is the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Big stack pushes and I am sick. I really am confused now. A baby flush might make this play but certainly would have reraised on the turn. The nut flush would probably check since I reraised on the turn and will probably bet here as well. Would a higher set or a straight push here or check and call my very likely value bet?

I just didn't have a good feeling about calling so I folded. I had 12400 in chips left which was a healthy stack so I decided the risk wasn't worth it. Was this a very weak fold considering I would be a huge chipleader if he is on a bluff and I win the hand? I made my decision to fold based on the fact that the only hand I felt I could beat was a bluff. I guess my difficulty lies with deciding if calling here to win a huge pot outweighs the times I am wrong about the big stack bluffing in this spot. Doesn't seem to me that the big stack would risk 60% of his remaining stack on a bluff here to win a pot of 8550. Maybe that is a huge leak in my game. Help!

I fold this preflop. not real comftorable with it even when you hit your set. First as you say it is a flush board. Second, a higher set pretty much has you drawing dead (1 out). That being said, i fold this preflop but since I've stayed and set myself up for a difficult decision, i go broke here? No i fold? no go broke? no, fold? Tough choice, fold preflop. Really situational based on reads. Can't fault you for checking the flop, but maybe a probe bet would have done the trick there. I think i fold the river. Maybe.

[mlagoo]

i almost always call this preflop, ESPECIALLY with the big stack in because your implied odds are ginormous (tm)(c).

i think you played it great except for your river fold. i'm definitely calling there. the only (reasonable) hand that beats you that he plays like this is the nuts, and there are a ton of hands you are beating that he plays like this (aces up with the Ad being the strongest candidate).

[PFrese]

Bad fold. If he had the nuts, or even a flush, he would have value bet. I would put him on AdJx. he flat called your raise with TPTK and a nut flush draw. He pushed with two pair.

Actually, he probobly just had the Ad. Maybe not even two pair.

[JohnG]

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Four players see a flop of J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and it is checked around. I was last to act - should I have taken a shot at this pot here?

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Usually not.

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Is he calling to set me up for a river bluff?

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I doubt he bluffs the river (in general, not knowing the player). You could easily be strong.

I probably just call his small turn bet rather than raise. I don't see much value in escalating the pot size on the turn, given the board and our hand.

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River is the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Big stack pushes and I am sick. I really am confused now.

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You tested him on the turn. He passed the test. You could easily have a strong hand here. If the river bet is a big bet, I'd normally give him credit and fold.

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Was this a very weak fold considering I would be a huge chipleader if he is on a bluff and I win the hand?

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Not sure it's a good idea to be habitually putting players on bluffs in that spot. I think a strong hand is much more likely.
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Pretty loose call by 22 preflop, given your position relative to the raiser, but maybe ok.

[mlagoo]

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Not sure it's a good idea to be habitually putting players on bluffs in that spot. I think a strong hand is much more likely.

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i agree with this, but my only problem is that the guy could be value betting with less than a set.

[JohnG]

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i agree with this, but my only problem is that the guy could be value betting with less than a set.

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He'd have to be a complete donk.

You can see what a mess escalating the pot on the turn has got us into.

[mlagoo]

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He'd have to be a complete donk.

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$10 NL tourney on Party

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[JohnG]

If he could be such a donk, the turn raise sucked unless we are prepared to shove the rest in. And I think that's a bad idea given how many hands can have us beat. We are almost giving the donk the advantage by being prepared to play for all our stack in these spots. Even donks can see there's 3 diamonds out there.

If the chip leader is such a donk, I control this pot by just calling the turn, and waiting for a better spot to try and bust him.

[schwza]

i would fold pre-flop. there are too many people left to act behind you who might raise, including a limp-reraise from the big stack.

the flop is good. betting would be a mistake, as there are too many hands like K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] that will call you, and either of the two player besides the pfr could have missed their check-raise. check and hit the miracle 2-outer.

you have to raise the turn. there are too many weak hands that villain can be holding that include a diamond. you can't give a free card - your hand is too vulnerable. there are a lot of hands that will call you drawing dead (e.g., J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) and you can't pass up that value. you'll have a decision to make if villain reraises the turn with a large bet, but that's not going to happen that often.

on the river, that's a really tough spot to be in. i really don't see a lot of overbets like that, so i don't feel like i have a good sense of what it's likely to mean. but my inclination would be to fold.

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A baby flush might make this play but certainly would have reraised on the turn.

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yeah, i would reraise the turn with a small flush there (i also would have led into the pfr on the flop), but you can't assume that your opponent would, especially in a low buy-in game. it's an interesting hand.