push this flop?

[fathertime]

I posted this one already but got no answer. I’d really like some help here; and so I’m posting it again and adding some more context.

In a thread in the upper limits—Aces play a big pot—villain (5c4c) flops a pair plus a flush draw: (~$1,350) Flop is 4d 8c 2c .

Of his play, fsuplayer (AA) writes that villain should have pushed the flop:

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yeah, its pretty much a coinflip, with a couple %'s pts depending on whether the overpair has one of the suit on the flop.

either way though, with even 1% folding equity its a good play with these stacks. and normally hero has big unpaired cards or a mid-high PP that he very well may fold.
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My hand is not exactly the same—I’ve got an oesd and fd; yhe pot is not raised preflop; the lower limits play differently from the higher. But it is still a great flop for my suited connectors. That said, when I got reraised to 14 I thought I was up against a solid made hand. And so should I be pushing this flop? I definitely think I have at least 1% folding equity. I’d say that I was 90-95% certain that a push would be called.


$50 NL
(6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6

Villain is aggressive and solid--pt stats 30/20. I'm about 25/8 and have been playing boring unimaginative abc poker. Villain's reraise means he's got a solid, made hand.

Seat 3: hero ( $74.25 )
Seat 6: villain ( $130.05 )

Mp1 limps; I limp on button 3s5s; sb completes; villain checks

** Dealing Flop ** [ Ts, 2d, 4s ]

sb checks.
villain bets [$1].
Mp1 calls [$1].
hero raises [$5].
sb folds.
villain raises [$14].
Mp1 folds.

Hero?

[swolfe]

that's the flop you're looking for when you played the hand, right? push...

[Tilt]

You push, by proces of elimination...cause if you:

Call, and don't hit, you may be forced to fold or make a mistake on the turn. And if you hit, you may not get paid off.

Fold - why, when you are probably statistically ahead?

Reraise instead of push - accomplishes nothing better than pushing does.

But pushing...gets your money in while you are leading form a probability perspective and adds fold equity to the value of your hand, which is valuable given that your hand is not yet made.

[BirdieLongSocks]

I just replyed to his original meesage and I dont really agree with pushing.

Although I might be mistaken about the math but aint his draw a dog to set and twopairs?

Could someone give me a link to a site which calcutale these kinda things?

[mason55]

This is why you need to be properly bankrolled for the game. It's a very +EV move but also very high variance. You could lose a few buy-ins easily if thing don't go your way a few times.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
I just replyed to his original meesage and I dont really agree with pushing.

Although I might be mistaken about the math but aint his draw a dog to set and twopairs?

Could someone give me a link to a site which calcutale these kinda things?

[/ QUOTE ]

not much of a dog:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=877122
pokenum -h 3s 5s - td th -- ts 2d 4s
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ts 4s 2d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5s 3s 399 40.30 591 59.70 0 0.00 0.403
Td Th 591 59.70 399 40.30 0 0.00 0.597


add in non-set hands, plus folding equity and pushing is very +EV.

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont really agree with pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that you're wrong

[jhall23]

Linky

This draw is a dog to a set (about 60/40)
Barely to 2 pair (.487)

Actually the worst scenario for hero would be if he gets called by a higher flush draw (both overs) Then he can be as low as 30%.

But we don't know villians hand here we can only guess. If I knew he had 2 pair I would definetly push cause there is enought dead money in the pot to make up for the small. Anyway a straight + flush draw is a big hand and I really have no problems getting all in with it. Calling doesn't seem that good a move to me.

OP, one thing though. This hand is different then the post that FSU replied to as you realize. In that post there was a raise PF which greatly increase the chance of overs/high PP. The draw that villian had in that hand was 49 % against hero's overpair so in that situation all he needed was slightly over 1% fold equity to make the push +EV. Seems like your villian would have definetly raised PF with a high PP with those stats so you can't apply the same calculation to this hand about how much fold equity you need to make it profitable. You'd need to put him on a range of hands, see how you do against that range and then you could see how much of a % you would need.

I default push here even thought it looks like set/two pair are likely. Worst case scenario probably being only 30% to win you would need villian to fold maybe ~15% of the time (don't really feel like doing the math, but it's not to hard to figure out) . Realistically I think 5-10 is good enough given he could have 2 pair or a set maybe worse. Plus it looks great for your image even if you don't hit.

[Huskiez]

This is pretty much a dream flop. It's time to decide how to play it facing Villain's call-reraise.

Keep in mind normally, I'm a huge fan of just pushing, considering you have a monster hand on this flop. But considering what your reads, I don't think it's always the best play.

You said you're 90-95% sure he will call a reraise here. I take it you put him on a very strong hand. Looking at this flop, I think T4, T2, 42, 44, and 22 are the most likely holdings. TT this player would have likely raised preflop, considering his 20% PFR.

Now what's nice about this hand is you have position. By raising all in, you negate that advantage, especially because you say you're sure he will call.

An important question here is do you think Villain will pay off a spade? If he will, I would definitely call here. You can get all in on a turn that hits you or figure your odds to call his turn bet on a safe turn. You can gain more by calling here, especially because you can get away from scare turns (T, 4, or 2).

Now if he won't pay off a spade, then I think the best play is to push. I believe you have enough equity against a set or two pair to make this play. You have a lot of spade outs, but they aren't as useful when you get no more money once they hit.

[BirdieLongSocks]

(I am tired and not really thinking clear). I will try to clarify my thoughts regarding call versus pushing.

The way I see it you take a big advantage away by pushing and that is position, with hero´s raise call I think (at these levels) that villian might have a hard time to put him on a draw. This will generate action if he hits as villian put him on a made hand.
With position he can view villians reaction to the call and turn card and make a play at the pot.

But I am a novice and I play by the "dont go broke in an unraised pot" kinda thinking.