Taking a Coinflip in BB on the Absolute Bubble? ($109)

[SoloAJ]

Calling here if you think youre 55/45 or better seems the obivous play to me if you're looking to maximize your $$$.

If you had an unlimited bankroll but still wanted to make the best decision, would you seirously still fold this hand if your read was 'any 2'?

That said, we can't be sure he is pushing any two,a nd if this is the first time he has showed aggression from the SB I would probably fold.

With what limited information I have, I probably call this hand and just hope the cards fall in my favor. I don't see the reasoning for laying it down if you think they're pushing any 2.

[DVaut1]

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I call this almost everytime (unless I have a specific read on a guy). Is that a leak?

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This situation arises so infrequently that I don't believe it's a huge leak; and while I would fold, I don't think it's a clear fold, and I can certainly see the wisdom in calling. I just wouldn't call here myself.

As Adanthar said, a great player can wield the larger stack (if the 55 were to hold up) to make a call here +$EV; but I'm not good enough (and chances are most of us aren't) good enough to make this call +$EV, because the larger stack won't overcome the -$EV call we're making in this spot. I think it's up to MSUCougar to judge his abilities, and know if the larger stack (resultant from calling and having the 55 hold up) can get him into the big money spots at the final table frequently enough to make taking the worst of it here profitable - or if calling and losing on the bubble will frustrate/anger him to the point of 'tilting', etc - even if he's otherwise skilled enough that it's truly a +EV call for him.

So I think this is largely a question of player introspection: do we think we're good enough to take the larger stack and parlay it into a big money spot -- so much so that we can take the worst of it by calling with 55 here? I'm not that good, so I'd lay it down. MSU's situation is likely different.

Hope this makes sense.

[donny5k]

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With what limited information I have, I probably call this hand and just hope the cards fall in my favor. I don't see the reasoning for laying it down if you think they're pushing any 2.

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Have you EVER played a satellite or thought about satellite theory? Let's say Hero's equity is slightly over 50% (I think villain folds 42o usually). Hero's equity by folding is going to be 2x buyin + X where X is what his chips are worth in terms of the money left over after the first pay stage. So he must have about 4x buyin + 2X equity when he wins the coinflip to justify calling. This means that doubling up has to give him 2x buyins in EV from bigger stack opportunities. That is a lot of equity to attribute to skill with a big stack. And if you don't see why that is true I give up.

[MSUcougar]

I definitely put villain on any 2. Honestly, given the spot, I think anything but a push in his position is bad with any 2 cards. I'm certain I could fold and make the money before blinds reached me again... However, given that there was a chance he had 1 (or even 2) cards < 5, I decided to gamble.

&gt;<font color="white">He showed T8h and rivered a T. I think this was an unnecessary call and one I probably won't make if the situation arises again. That might be results oriented thinking though...</font>&lt;

More comments/votes are welcome.