Canterbury 8/16, Preflop question

[dcarlc]

I limped and everyone came in.

Flop: 2, 2, 5

checked to me and I bet and everyone calls.

Turn: 8

checked to me and I bet, Cutoff and 3 others call.

River: J

check to me, I check, Cutoff bets, 1 call to me, I cry and call. Cutoff(Marshall for those MN people) shows J8 off.

If I raise preflop I win a nice pot. Instead I learn why I should raise.

Thanks

[ErrantNight]

i think you should bet this river for value.

[BigEndian]

The lesson before this hand should be to not let one instance define a rule for your play.

- Jim

[Alex/Mugaaz]

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Ego, this is a commonly known tactic. It is also used as a contributing argument for a raise along with a the fact that a hand such as a small to mid pair already has good value in a lot of situations before the flop. It's a play worth putting in your playbook.

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While you do have odds to raise for set value, your overall equity to win the hand is a small edge at best. Raising also means it's going to be harder to protect your hand if you flop an OP. The combination of thse two things makes a limp more profitable. You're going to flop an OP a lot more often than you're going to flop a set and you want to be able to protect your hand against overcards on the flop.

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Nothing short of shooting the other players in the head with a gun will protect your hand if you flop an overpair in a 7 handed pot. Whatever comes on this flop won't change the fact that at least 3 or 4 people will likely showdown a hand unless there is super heavy action on the later streets.

Second of all "your equity is vary small" WHAT?! No it is not. What kind of crap do you think is out there when a pot is 7handed? Also in situations like this you get luckier than normal since a lot of the overcards to your 9s won't be very live at all.

[mtdoak]

its a value raise. 9s, Ts, Js are essentially the same hands IMHO. Easy to play preflop, hard to play after the flop. Raise it and probably check/fold if you get more than one over on the flop.

[Scuba Chuck]

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The lesson before this hand should be to not let one instance define a rule for your play.

- Jim

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I'm glad I didn't have to say this.

[donny5k]

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I disagree. This is a huge multiway pot, where cutting down opponents is wishful thinking. You raise, but the primary reason is the pure profit from set value. If you can nab the button or catch a favorable non-set flop, that's nice too, but sets are most important, and most profitable, against a loose-passive field.

And you realize that limping AA/KK/QQ here gives up at least 7 small bets preflop, right?

You should raise preflop for value. Any pocket pair figures to win more than its fair share in an 8-10 handed pot, so it can raise profitably. Larger pairs win more often unimproved. The primary value of low-mid PPs now derives from sets and full houses, which is why 22 can raise here also. AA/KK win so often UI that sets are less important, but this has nothing to do with not raising. These hands are even more valuable to raise.

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You realize if you "raise for set value" you're going to get around 7 to 1 pot odds on a ~7.5 to 1 shot? This thinking makes no sense. If you said you are raising so that people will be tied to the pot when you do flop a set, that's fine. But in this case people will be tied to the pot anyway because they are loose.

That said, 99 isn't purely a set value hand so I think this is a raise. However, 22 is NOT a raise.

[private joker]

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If I raise preflop I win a nice pot. Instead I learn why I should raise.



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It's a good thing you're not being results-oriented.

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While you do have odds to raise for set value, your overall equity to win the hand is a small edge at best.

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I dunno where you get this from. Playing around with PokerStove I generally found that a broad selection of typical limping hands in the first four hands (Ace rag, Ace and King small suited, suited connectors, small pocket pairs) had about 15% equity, while 99 had 25% equity. Of course that assumes they all go to the river, but it already points to a pretty large equity difference.

[shant]

This post about a preflop play got so many replies I had to go back to the first page to check and see if jason_t posted it.