Overcall this river?

[madscratch]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1335855
pokenum -h 8h 8d - ad 7d - 6c 8c - 8s 9s - kd 4c -- 3d 5h 7s
Holdem Hi: 741 enumerated boards containing 7s 3d 5h

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8d 8h 192 25.91 541 73.01 8 1.08 0.263

Ad 7d 145 19.57 596 80.43 0 0.00 0.196

8c 6c 176 23.75 557 75.17 8 1.08 0.241

9s 8s 146 19.70 587 79.22 8 1.08 0.201

4c Kd 74 9.99 667 90.01 0 0.00 0.100

Ok, so in this scenario pretty much everyone's getting the odds to call. And we're only slightly ahead. I would have thought we'd be a bigger favorite. Is this why we just call?

[Buckmulligan]

[ QUOTE ]
I think our edge is indeed pretty darn thin. Granted, we don't have a flush draw to worry about, but any broadway (20 cards) is sad times with 4 villains. We'd also rather not see a 7, and 4 isn't all that great either. At least a 6 gives us an OESD.


[/ QUOTE ]

Would we even think twice about raising with tt here? How bout JJ? The kind of cards that hit us badly on the turn also with those hands are not much different than those that hit us with 88.
Also, I'm just curious, what equity do you reward us with here? Let's assume that raising the flop knocks out one of the villains.

Okay, I've changed my mind again.

With these cards, and this flop, the chances of our edge ever increasing are slim. Both overcards and undercards (and even the remaining 8s) can hurt us. Everyone's hanging in for a reason.

I raise now while my edge is the best it will likely ever be, then hang in unless an overcard/mass action sequence erupts.

And then I weep openly, knowing I might have been able to avoid this with a preflop raise.

[MrWookie47]

Yes, I'd think twice about raising TT. In that case, it looks like it's right out of SSH. QQ is a raise, though, since our edge is larger. JJ is on the border.

[Buckmulligan]

I'm not seeing the spookiness in this board at all. The analysis of the hand and the possible holdings of our opponents reeks of monsters under the bed to me. Here's something else: there will be no way for us to know if we are beat or not by the turn action, really, as we probably would if there were stronger draws out there. I don't mind raising the flop and bet/folding to checkraise on the turn. It's cheaper than calling down, which we are essentially committing to if we just call the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I'd think twice about raising TT. In that case, it looks like it's right out of SSH. QQ is a raise, though, since our edge is larger. JJ is on the border.

[/ QUOTE ]

When an overcard comes our equity drops with this number of opponents in the hand. Is that correct?
If an undercard to our pp turns, it could give a lot of straight- and flush-draws or trips to this not-so-small field. So where does the huge increase in equity for our UI pair that we want to push on the turn actually come from?

[madscratch]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not seeing the spookiness in this board at all. The analysis of the hand and the possible holdings of our opponents reeks of monsters under the bed to me. Here's something else: there will be no way for us to know if we are beat or not by the turn action, really, as we probably would if there were stronger draws out there. I don't mind raising the flop and bet/folding to checkraise on the turn. It's cheaper than calling down, which we are essentially committing to if we just call the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'm still not entirely sure raising is so bad, but I will agree that's it not as good as I thought it was. I agree with the poster who advocated raising the flop and betting the turn, folding to a reraise. Otherwise I think we've comitted to just calling down and possibly folding when one of many scare cards come.

Just for kicks, here's a less MUBsy look at villians' hands and we still don't look that great:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1335904
pokenum -h 8h 8d - ad 9d - tc qs - kc jd - kd 4c -- 3d 5h 7s
Holdem Hi: 741 enumerated boards containing 7s 3d 5h

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8d 8h 190 25.64 551 74.36 0 0.00 0.256

Ad 9d 172 23.21 569 76.79 0 0.00 0.232

Qs Tc 129 17.41 612 82.59 0 0.00 0.174

Kc Jd 120 16.19 621 83.81 0 0.00 0.162

4c Kd 130 17.54 611 82.46 0 0.00 0.175

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
With these cards, and this flop, the chances of our edge ever increasing are slim.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not quite true. If the turn is an undercard to our pair, our edge increases dramatically. After raising the flop we still have to dodge 2 streets worth of overcards and those hands have better odds to chase (so a hand like K5 might stay in trying to catch 2 pair where they would have folded the turn when it's 2 bets to them).

[Obliky]

[ QUOTE ]
Go back and read the two overpair hands section of SSH.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just did (as i thought that raising was the best play too). Im now changing my mind and going for the call flop, raise favorable turn line.

Your equity is going to change dramatically one way or another on the next card..forgo the small edge we have now and go for a possibly much larger edge on the turn.

SSH is [censored] great, isnt it? Its like a micro-limits bible... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Your equity is going to change dramatically one way or another on the next card..forgo the small edge we have now and go for a possibly much larger edge on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
The problem here for me is that in this situation, I see very little that could give us a larger edge, where anyone would be willing to call even one bet on the turn. But maybe that's the point...?