$2/5 Overaggresive with set?

[BuBu_]

I made a bad read (and therefore a bad bet) on this one.

$2/$5 6 Max, 6 Handed. Villian ($700) is regular & tight, but not very good. He normally plays his strong hands with min raises.

Hero ($535) is button with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

PREFLOP:
Hero opens on button for $20. Villain (BB) only calls.

FLOP ($42) 2 players:
K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villian checks, Hero bets $30, Villain calls.

TURN ($102):
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villian checks, Hero bets $75, Villian calls.

RIVER ($252):
2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villian checks, Hero bets $180 (with another $230 behind), Villian raises to $360. Hero calls..

Most interested in what people do on this river when checked to. I thought I could value bet Villians AK or possibly low set. Didn't think he would check a flush on the river, because he knows I will check behind 90% of the time.

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought I could value bet Villians AK or possibly low set.

[/ QUOTE ]Does someone with AK or a low set play so passively with a flush draw out there? No. Someone who is slowplaying a monster (unlikely in this case) or fishing for the flush will. And you stabbed twice so villain was correct to think you might stab again or decided that if he suddenly woke up that you wouldn't call his value bet so may as well take the chance. You did say he wasn't very good.

I also bet a shade more on every street to really price villain out of the flush draw. And yes, check behind the river.

As you played it, you have to call. There's a lot of money in the pot and maybe villain pulled this move with AK deciding that he could slowplay top two for some reason.

[BuBu_]

I used to play a lot of Heads Up poker and I would have thought it was pretty weak not to bet the river here.

Is this wrong? or maybe the situation is slightly different because we are in a shorthanded ring game and my raise came from the button, not the SB.

[NYCNative]

The issue is putting villain on a hand. Twice in a row he check-called your 3/4-pot-sized bets. What do you think that means?

[Allinlife]

bet 1/2ish on the river. you can SAFELY fold to the checkraise. don't pay these guys off.

I like both Alinlife's response and NYCs - however, I'm leaning towards checking behind on the turn.

Why?

Missed straight draws won't call you and flush draws will raise you. I smell Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

The turn only added extra outs for him. This I'm 75% sure of. When the min-raise comes, you know you're beat about 90% of the time.

The ultimate question is when to check behind and when to raise. If you think that there's an even chance that he's on a weaker king or flush draw, I'd bet and fold to a check raise. However, from the action I can ascertain that he's most likely playing a draw.

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Street Fighter [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

i would have played the hand the same way all the way to the river..you got him to pay you off on a flush draw (if thats what he had) really that would be the only legitimate hand he would be chasing unless he hit a higher set in that case he would have reraised you..when he checks on the river you should also check because a diamond on the river is really the worst card you could have seen.

[gol4pro]

Checking this turn is a complete disaster. Are you crazy?

I think the river bet is a little too greedy. I'm not just saying that because you got check-raised. I'm aware that most villians don't have the discipline to check a flush here on the river, I just think you're saving yourself a lot of difficult decisions by checking behind him here.

If he had played the hand in a manner that would make me think he didn't have a flush draw, I'd probably bet the river. But since he's got Flush draw written all over him, just check behind.

Anyways, you called, and he showed you the flush.

[Triumph36]

I've taken to betting closer to full pot on the turn when I have a set and there's an obvious draw on the board. While this will lose some weaker hands, it charges the draws more and IMO, defines them and thus makes it simpler to check behind or fold to clear value bets here. When you show that you're that strong, most opponents aren't going to try a river bluff on a flush card.