Overcall this river?

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The one thing that stands out to me is the turn is a raise or fold situation.

[Koss]

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We gotta raise this preflop. For one thing we probably have at least marginally the best hand right now. Perhaps more importantly, it gives us a chance to get rid of the blinds. 88 doesn't like to invite a ton of folks to the party.


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Yeah, and if I thought the blinds had software that came equipped with a fold button, I raise this every time. Unfortunately they both had VPIP's of around 60 (this was a sweet table). And the SB had coldcalled me EVERY time I've raised so far, just to piss me off it seemed like. I figured with 88 vs. at best 3 opponents, but more likely 4, there weren't many flops where my hand would still be best. So I decided to take a cheap flop. You can argue it all day long but I think against blinds who are almost guaranteed to defend, the EV of raising is close enough to negligible.

Interesting how this thread turned into a debate about playing weak overpairs. I'm still curious to see how some of you play the river in my spot.

[Koss]

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The one thing that stands out to me is the turn is a raise or fold situation.

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Yeah, I pretty much hit myself for not raising the turn. My hand was good enough to showdown that I really should have raised it. In my original post I said that UTG was passive, but in actuality he was a little more aggressive than the average .50/1 donk. But he used his aggression in all the wrong places. I know he would be betting a 9 here, but he'd also be betting some other goofy hands which I was way ahead of. I really should have raised. I tend to become a bit of a calling station when people make confusing bets and my hand is not overly strong. I'm working on it.

[milesdyson]

i'd guess it's very slightly -EV to make this river call. so, it doesn't matter much. there isn't much to say about it, as you have no reads on this guy anyway. either he has a 9 or he now thinks his two pair is good.

flop/turn are much more debateable than the river play, which is hard to analyze in the first place.

[MrWookie47]

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The one thing that stands out to me is the turn is a raise or fold situation.

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Not even remotely close to raise or fold. Folding is pretty bad. Our gutshot outs combined with our (somewhat discounted) set outs on top of the chance that we may still be best make this a poor fold. I don't like raising, either. Had the original aggressor bet and MP called, I'd raise. However, he checked, and there's now a new aggressor. He doesn't have to have a 9, but it's somewhat more likely. I really don't want to get 3bet.

[Obliky]

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I don't like raising, either. Had the original aggressor bet and MP called, I'd raise. However, he checked, and there's now a new aggressor. He doesn't have to have a 9, but it's somewhat more likely. I really don't want to get 3bet.

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Doesnt this read make raising more viable?

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UTG has also made some very stupid bets with weak hands that have no chance of inducing folds.


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[Obliky]

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Your equity is going to change dramatically one way or another on the next card..forgo the small edge we have now and go for a possibly much larger edge on the turn.

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The problem here for me is that in this situation, I see very little that could give us a larger edge, where anyone would be willing to call even one bet on the turn. But maybe that's the point...?

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Its true that there arent many good cards that can come for us on the turn, which i assume makes calling even better (assuming a raise wont get a considerate number of opponents to fold).

[Wizard0965]

I'd call. SB leads the river, and UTG only called meaning he busted his drawing hand, or is afraid of SB having a full house and beating his made turn straight. Either way I don't put either villian on a 9 and I expect to take this pot down with one villain on over cards and the other with a smaller PP.