sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop

[disjunction]

Bad call, because even if you make all his assumptions, it's 0EV. You could understand what he was thinking, but the odds weren't quite there.

It's not just the 7.5:1 to flop a set. There's the chance that the opponent won't put his whole stack on the line (don't say it's 0%!), and more importantly, the chance that Sammy flops a set AND an ace or a king comes on the flop. These flops definitely do not have an EV of +10000 for him.

[ismisus]

Sammy invested 1000 to have around a 5% chance of getting 14000. Its important to gain chips early in a tournament situation, since the stakes are always rising. I would say Sammy was correct, no matter the result.

Also because of this Sammy was one of the chip leaders after Day 1. I would assume he was able to gamble for more chips without the possibility of going broke. Plus its a lot more fun to play hands when you have a lot of chips, for Sammy 10k is nothin! He's not going to sit there and fold when he's shortstacked

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
just because you are good at something completely unrelated doesnt magically make you not [censored] terrible at playing aces preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

So your position is that being a brilliant guy and very smart BJ player is "completely unrelated" to poker skill.

Now I remember why I don't post here much.

ummm yeah, saying they're unrelated is like saying "I know he majored in physics, but he might suck at calculus"

[Jim T]

[ QUOTE ]
ummm yeah, saying they're unrelated is like saying "I know he majored in physics, but he might suck at calculus"

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite. Especially considering both the way he played the one hand we have any information on AND what he described of his thought processes afterwards.

More like: 'I know he majored in physics, I'm pretty sure he sucks at calculus. Hmm, did he flunk out?'

[illegit]

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If your playing a Party Tourny, and you have AA, raise 20BB, and a guy calls, then folds on a rag flop you would laugh to your self about what a donkey he is.


[/ QUOTE ]
Poor analogy. In the first level of a party tourney blinds are 10/15. If someone raises 20x the BB that's 300, which is equal to 1/3 of their stack. If they have reason to believe there are some bad players who will call off a ton of chips with a wide range of hands this isn't a terrible play because anyone who calls is NOT getting the implied odds to out flop you. (Generally you'd like to make a more standard sized raise to ensure action though). So as you can see this would be a terrible call with 33 in this party tourney for over 1/3 of your stack. The difference here is that the stacks are deep and a 20x BB raise was only equal to 1/14 of curtis's stack not 1/3.

[MrBlueNose]

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This guy gave himself a chance to win a substantial pot early on. I don't think he played the hand that poorly.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, raising 1000 to win a pot of 75 is a great play.

[gergery]

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Anyone else add on anything here or correct some stuff?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe he was confident he could get AA / KK to lay it down due to his image.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[/ QUOTE ]


Maybe that will become the basis for Playing on the Edge Part 9 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

-greg

[gergery]

88.5% Sammy misses, the guy bets, Sammy fold, and he loses -1000

12.5% Sammy hits. This needs to be broken down into sub-cases
-- AA misses, goes all in, doesn’t suck out, and Sammy wins (84%)
-- AA misses, goes all in, AA sucks out, and Sammy loses (8%)
-- AA also hits (8%). We’ll the assume that sammy reads well enough to fold set under set.

.885 * -1,000 = -885
.125 *.84 * 10,075 = +1,058
.125 * .08 * -10,000 = -100
.125 * .08 * -1000 = -10

Net, his EV is +63 here and good players don’t pass up EV+ opportunities.
Then you have some meta-game considerations. A guy who overplays AA to 20xbb is likely to make other big mistakes. So you should be willing to gamble a bit more to get his chips before someone like Negreanu gets ahold of them and it gets difficult significantly more difficult to pry them loose.

Sammy also doesn’t mind if everyone is terrified he’s going to call them whenever they bet anything.

[Jordan Olsommer]

[ QUOTE ]
Net, his EV is +63 here and good players don’t pass up EV+ opportunities.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way Farha could have calculated that at the table and been confident enough that he hadn't made an error to say it was barely, but surely, +EV. It's much more likely that he overestimated the payoff for hitting his set by underestimating the EV impact of Curtis's drawing out on the set anyway. In fact, if he knew with 100% certainty that his EV was exactly 63, I think he would have folded before the flop - too much risk for too little gain.