trapped with 2 pair

[MATT111]

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I was pretty sure the SB had an Ace, and I knew I had one, so I didn't think that anyone else had one. I didn't want to drive anyone out of the pot just in case someone wanted to chase a gutshot or a set. I kind of figured everyone would just fold leaving the pot heads up, and I could pop him on the turn. It didn't work!

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I first thought it`s ok to just call. But you have to keep in mind that any ace that does not beat you now has at least 9 outs against you. So it`s a clear raise even in a small pot.

[shadow29]

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I think raising these flops is really important.

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What hands do you want to drive out on the flop? Ax? Slowplaying isn't always bad. See below.

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In this small pot there is no need to wait for a good turncard to driver others out. (if that was your plan)

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Now apply this fact to what hands you want to drive out: what odds those hands need and what odds they're getting.

[xenthebrain]

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I think raising these flops is really important.

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What hands do you want to drive out on the flop? Ax? Slowplaying isn't always bad. See below.
[ QUOTE ]
In this small pot there is no need to wait for a good turncard to driver others out. (if that was your plan)

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Now apply this fact to what hands you want to drive out: what odds those hands need and what odds they're getting.

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Ax (with x>5) has 6 outs against us (and doesn't know it).
The 3 fives and 3 cards to pair his kicker.
So his odds are about 1 to 6.8 to hit on the turn.

If I flat call SB here, he is getting 1 to 7, so his call would be correct.
If I raise SB he is just getting 1 to 4.
He is probably going to call thinking his hand is good (maybe some type of players with A6-9 fold).
According to the fundamental theorem of poker he is now making a mistake when he calls.

Getting 1 to 7 a call with a gutshotdraw wouldn't be that bad either due to implied odds.

So, we have the chance to give all these draws incorrect odds.
If they call we gain, if they fold we maximise our chances of winning the pot.

Someone with Ax is likely to call, so we gain from him.
Someone with a gutshot wouldn't get good implied odds to draw to his straight. If he calls, he is making a huge mistake, but if we don't raise he gets good odds anyway, so we wouldn't gain from him.

In my opinion, this is not a hand to slowplay like this.
When someone else improves he is not improving to a 2nd best hand, rather to a best hand.
Worse hands are likely to call on the flop and pay us off.
Any 3, 4, 5, and kickers to an A could kill us.

So, please tell me why do you think raising the turn is superior to raising the flop.

[Koss]

Yeah, that is all well and good. But here's the thing. I am 90% sure the SB has an Ace here. I have an Ace. So how worried should I be about other Ax hands behind me? Gutshots maybe, but I am not as worried about them calling. Plus, if there is an Ax behind me, I was counting on them raising, and I would happily 3-bet. Which is exactly what I thought had happened, but the action got a little out of control. My thinking when I called was "This joker has an Ace. Anyone behind me who also has an Ace is likely to raise. Everyone else will most likely fold, unless they are chasing a gutshot. So hopefully someone will raise and I can 3-bet, or they fold and I pop the SB on the turn when he bets again." I am overthinking here?